Match Info

Premier League - Round 14

Date: 3 December 2025, Wednesday

Location: Turf Moor (Burnley)

Referee: Kirk T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Venezuela	Disney+


	Burnley		Crystal Palace

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.75	1.73
	4.95	3.75	1.75
	5.3	3.77	1.75
	5.11	3.79	1.7	Watch
	4.8	3.6	1.73
	4.87	3.84	1.77	Watch
	5.33	3.6	1.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.02 ↑ (4.61)	3.73 ↓ (4.01)	1.73 ↑ (1.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Burnley
19.1%

Draw
25.7%

Crystal Palace
55.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.6%

23.7%

55.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.7%

22.7%

58%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burnley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Crystal Palace has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burnley than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crystal Palace than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.9%	10.2%	78%

Burnley - Crystal Palace Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Crystal Palace (1.19) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.75 - Burnley (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Crystal Palace will win (44 of 56 users predict this - 78.57%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.82% – 89.32%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Crystal Palace will win (19 of 22 users predict this - 86.36%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 25 Selected Experts predict this event. Burnley (votes: 4 - 16%). Crystal Palace (votes: 21 - 84%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dubravka M. (G) 2. Walker K. 18. Ekdal H. 5. Esteve M. 3. Hartman Q. 17. Tchaouna L. 24. Cullen J. (C) 16. Florentino 11. Anthony J. 19. Flemming Z. 9. Foster L.	1. Henderson D. (G) 26. Richards C. 5. Lacroix M. 6. Guehi M. (C) 2. Munoz D. 20. Wharton A. 8. Lerma J. 3. Mitchell T. 18. Kamada D. 10. Pino Y. 14. Mateta J.
Substitutes
27. Broja A. 7. Bruun Larsen J. 10. Edwards M. 29. Laurent J. 23. Lucas Pires 28. Mejbri H. 8. Ugochukwu L. 13. Weiss M. (G) 4. Worrall J.	44. Benitez W. (G) 23. Canvot J. 17. Clyne N. 55. Devenny J. 21. Esse R. 19. Hughes W. 31. Matthews R. (G) 9. Nketiah E. 12. Uche C.
Coaches
Parker S.	Glasner O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
44', 0 - 1, Munoz D. ⚽, Guehi M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Tchaouna L. ↓, Bruun Larsen J. ↑,
58', Anthony J. ↓, Edwards M. ↑,
59', Flemming Z. ↓, Mejbri H. ↑,
64', Mateta J. ↓, Nketiah E. ↑,
64', Pino Y. ↓, Devenny J. ↑,
71', Florentino ↓, Ugochukwu L. ↑,
76', Wharton A. ↓, Hughes W. ↑,
81', Cullen J. ↓, Broja A. ↑,
88', Kamada D. ↓, Canvot J. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 1.

Recent form of Burnley has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Crystal Palace has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Burnley may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Crystal Palace is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Burnley: Amdouni Z. (Knee Injury) Beyer J. (Hamstring Injury) Roberts C. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Crystal Palace: Cardines R. (Muscle Injury) Doucoure C. (Knee Injury) Kporha C. (Back Injury) Sarr I. (Injury) Sosa B. (Knock)

There are questionable in Crystal Palace: Riad C. (Knee Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 23:27. (average 1.2:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Burnley won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:16. (average 1.3:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burnley FC
English Premier League
29.11.25	Brentford - Burnley	3:1 ✺
22.11.25	Burnley - Chelsea	0:2 ✺
08.11.25	West Ham United - Burnley	3:2 ✺
01.11.25	Burnley - Arsenal	0:2 ✺
26.10.25	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Burnley	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LLLLW
- Crystal Palace
English Premier League
30.11.25	Crystal Palace - Manchester United	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	Strasbourg - Crystal Palace	2:1 ✺
English Premier League
22.11.25	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Crystal Palace	0:2 ✺
09.11.25	Crystal Palace - Brighton & Hove Albion	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.11.25	Crystal Palace - AZ Alkmaar	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
24.02.24	Crystal Palace - Burnley	3:0
04.11.23	Burnley - Crystal Palace	0:2
26.02.22	Crystal Palace - Burnley	1:1
20.11.21	Burnley - Crystal Palace	3:3
13.02.21	Crystal Palace - Burnley	0:3
23.11.20	Burnley - Crystal Palace	1:0
29.06.20	Crystal Palace - Burnley	0:1

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