Match Info

ENGLAND: EFL CUP - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 27 September 2023, Wednesday

Location: Vitality Stadium (Bournemouth)

Referee: Scott G. (Eng)


	Bournemouth		Stoke City

	1	X	2
	1.62	4	5.25
	1.62	4	5.25
	1.63	4.2	5.5	Watch
	1.64	4.31	5.16
	1.57	3.7	4.5
	1.59	4.2	5.35	Watch
	1.62	4.1	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (1.63)	4.07 ↑ (3.99)	5.17 ↑ (4.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bournemouth
58.6%

Draw
23.2%

Stoke City
18.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.2%

23.3%

19.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.5%

22.8%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bournemouth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Stoke City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bournemouth than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stoke City than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	10%	20%

Bournemouth - Stoke City Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Bournemouth will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Stoke will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bournemouth: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
20. Radu I. (G) 15. Smith A. (C) 27. Zabarnyi I. 25. Senesi M. 3. Kerkez M. 8. Rothwell J. 4. Cook L. 7. Brooks D. 22. Traore H. J. 11. Ouattara Da. 24. Semenyo A.	13. Bonham J. (G) 17. Hoever K. 5. Rose M. 16. Wilmot B. (C) 2. Gooch L. 12. Johnson D. 4. Pearson B. 15. Thompson J. 27. Leris M. 18. Wesley 22. Bae Joon-Ho
Substitutes
37. Aarons M. 18. Adams T. 10. Christie R. 26. Kilkenny G. 19. Kluivert J. 21. Moore K. 1. Neto (G) 9. Solanke D. 16. Tavernier M.	34. Fielding F. (G) 11. Gayle D. 20. Haksabanovic S. 21. Jojic N. 28. Laurent J. 35. Lowe N. 23. McNally L. 30. Sidibe S. 7. Vidigal A.
Coaches
Iraola A.	Neil A.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Bournemouth won 4.

Recent matches Bournemouth is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Stoke is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Bournemouth could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Bournemouth is a favorite.

There will not play in Bournemouth: Adams T. (Thigh Injury) Fredericks R. (Calf Injury) Marcondes E. (Ankle Injury) Scott A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Stoke: Baker L. (Injury) Burger W. (Muscle Injury) Campbell T. (Leg Injury) Stevens E. (Calf Injury) Tezgel E. (Injury)

There are questionable in Stoke: Mmaee R. (Leg Injury)

Last 10 head-to-head matches Bournemouth won 6 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 13-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Bournemouth won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Bournemouth
English Premier League
24.09.23	Brighton & Hove Albion - Bournemouth	3:1 ✺
17.09.23	Bournemouth - Chelsea	0:0 ✺
02.09.23	Brentford - Bournemouth	2:2 ✺
English League Cup
29.08.23	Swansea City - Bournemouth	2:3 ✺
English Premier League
26.08.23	Bournemouth - Tottenham Hotspur	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 LTTWL
- Stoke City
English League Championship
24.09.23	Stoke City - Hull City	1:3 ✺
20.09.23	Huddersfield Town - Stoke City	2:2 ✺
16.09.23	Norwich City - Stoke City	1:0 ✺
02.09.23	Stoke City - Preston North End	0:2 ✺
English League Cup
29.08.23	Stoke City - Rotherham United	6:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
26.02.22	Bournemouth - Stoke City	2:1
19.10.21	Stoke City - Bournemouth	0:1
08.05.21	Bournemouth - Stoke City	0:2
02.01.21	Stoke City - Bournemouth	0:1
English Premier League
03.02.18	Bournemouth - Stoke City	2:1
21.10.17	Stoke City - Bournemouth	1:2
06.05.17	Bournemouth - Stoke City	2:2

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