Match Info

Premier League - Round 7

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Villa Park (Birmingham)

Referee: Kitchen A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Aston Villa		Burnley

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.9	5.5
	1.58	4	5.5
	1.62	3.95	5.7
	1.64	3.95	5.95
	1.61	3.74	5.71	Watch
	1.68	4.03	5.87	Watch
	1.59	3.95	5.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↑ (1.56)	3.93 ↓ (4.29)	5.7 ↓ (5.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aston Villa
59%

Draw
24.3%

Burnley
16.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.4%

22.3%

16.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.6%

21.6%

16.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aston Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Burnley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burnley than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.7%	11.7%	6.7%

Aston Villa - Burnley Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 16 - 72.7%). Burnley (votes: 3 - 13.6%). Tie (votes: 3 - 13.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -1 - Aston Villa (1.97) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Aston Villa (2.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Aston Villa will win (48 of 59 users predict this - 81.36%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.42% – 91.3%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 25 Selected Experts predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 19 - 76%). Burnley (votes: 3 - 12%). Tie (votes: 3 - 12%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Martinez E. (G) 2. Cash M. 4. Konsa E. 14. Torres P. 12. Digne L. 26. Bogarde L. 44. Kamara B. 7. McGinn J. (C) 27. Rogers M. 17. Malen D. 11. Watkins O.	1. Dubravka M. (G) 2. Walker K. 6. Tuanzebe A. 29. Laurent J. 5. Esteve M. 3. Hartman Q. 17. Tchaouna L. 24. Cullen J. (C) 16. Florentino 11. Anthony J. 9. Foster L.
Substitutes
6. Barkley R. 40. Bizot M. (G) 10. Buendia E. 9. Elliott H. 29. Guessand E. 20. Jimoh-Aloba J. 3. Lindelof V. 22. Maatsen I. 24. Onana A.	27. Broja A. 7. Bruun Larsen J. 10. Edwards M. 19. Flemming Z. 12. Humphreys B. 28. Mejbri H. 8. Ugochukwu L. 13. Weiss M. (G) 4. Worrall J.
Coaches
Emery U.	Parker S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', Foster L. 🟨,
25', 1 - 0, Malen D. ⚽, Kamara B. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', Digne L. 🟨,
59', Tchaouna L. ↓, Bruun Larsen J. ↑,
59', Anthony J. ↓, Broja A. ↑,
63', 2 - 0, Malen D. ⚽, Rogers M. (A),
67', Watkins O. ↓, Buendia E. ↑,
67', McGinn J. ↓, Guessand E. ↑,
69', Foster L. ↓, Ugochukwu L. ↑,
78', 2 - 1, Ugochukwu L. ⚽, Hartman Q. (A),
82', Laurent J. ↓, Flemming Z. ↑,
84', Cash M. ↓, Lindelof V. ↑,
84', Malen D. ↓, Barkley R. ↑,
90', Bogarde L. ↓, Onana A. ↑,
90+1', Buendia E. 🟨,
90+3', Martinez E. 🟨,
90+10', Buendia E. ↓, Maatsen I. ↑,
90+10', Esteve M. ↓, Worrall J. ↑,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 16 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 3.

Aston Villa is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Burnley has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Burnley may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Aston Villa is the team to beat.

There will not play in Aston Villa: Barkley R. (Lacking Match Fitness) Mings T. (Injury) Onana A. (Hamstring Injury) Tielemans Y. (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Burnley: Amdouni Z. (Knee Injury) Beyer J. (Hamstring Injury) Roberts C. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Martinez E. (Calf Injury) Sancho J. (Illness)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:13. (average 1.7:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Aston Villa won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:6. (average 1.2:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aston Villa
UEFA Europa League
02.10.25	Feyenoord - Aston Villa	0:2 ✺
English Premier League
28.09.25	Aston Villa - Fulham	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
25.09.25	Aston Villa - Bologna	1:0 ✺
English Premier League
21.09.25	Sunderland - Aston Villa	1:1 ✺
English League Cup
16.09.25	Brentford - Aston Villa	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWWTL
- Burnley FC
English Premier League
27.09.25	Manchester City - Burnley	5:1 ✺
English League Cup
23.09.25	Burnley - Cardiff City	1:2 ✺
English Premier League
20.09.25	Burnley - Nottingham Forest	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Burnley - Liverpool	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Manchester United - Burnley	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
30.12.23	Aston Villa - Burnley	3:2
27.08.23	Burnley - Aston Villa	1:3
19.05.22	Aston Villa - Burnley	1:1
07.05.22	Burnley - Aston Villa	1:3
27.01.21	Burnley - Aston Villa	3:2
17.12.20	Aston Villa - Burnley	0:0
01.01.20	Burnley - Aston Villa	1:2

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