Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 19

Date: 23 January 2026, Friday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior (Rio Maior)

Referee: Baixinho R. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 7
Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Casa Pia		AVS

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.1	4.1	Watch
	1.93	3.3	4
	2.02	3.2	3.7	Watch
	2.06	3.27	4.09
	2.08	3.24	3.8	Watch
	2.1	3	3.7	Watch
	2.15	3.23	3.9	Watch
	2.08	3.1	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↓ (2.08)	3.18 ↓ (3.35)	3.89 ↓ (3.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Casa Pia
46.1%

Draw
29.7%

AVS
24.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.6%

28.9%

24.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.2%

28.5%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

AVS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AVS than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.6%	7.7%	7.7%

Casa Pia - AVS Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 1st Half - draw (4.76) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

AH -1 - Casa Pia (3.07) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Casa Pia will win (21 of 25 users predict this - 84%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.63% – 98.37%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Casa Pia will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Casa Pia (votes: 11 - 91.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sequeira P. (G) 4. Goulart J. 3. Kaly 43. Sousa D. 72. Larrazabal G. 74. Nhaga R. 8. Brito R. 5. Conte A. 21. Morais T. 90. Cassiano (C) 29. Livolant J.	1. Adriel (G) 27. Algobia A. 35. Semedo R. 26. Ponck 24. Kiki (C) 70. Roni 23. Mendonca G. 11. Akinsola T. 8. Pedro Lima 14. Perea O. 7. Tomane
Substitutes
33. Batista R. (G) 18. Geraldes A. 14. Miguel Sousa 24. Mohamed I. 7. Nsona K. 80. Ofori L. 13. Osundina K. 19. Prieto K. 10. Rocha Livramento D.	20. Duarte D. 19. Galletto T. 21. Neiva G. 18. Nene 3. Paulo Vitor 12. Rivas L. 33. Santos A. 93. Simao (G) 2. Spencer D.
Coaches
Pacheco A.	Henriques J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Sousa D. ⚽, Brito R. (A),
13', Roni 🟨,
30', Semedo R. 🟨,
44', Pedro Lima 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 3)
50', 2 - 0, Larrazabal G. ⚽,
60', Roni ↓, Duarte D. ↑,
60', Perea O. ↓, Rivas L. ↑,
63', Cassiano 🟨,
64', Morais T. ↓, Osundina K. ↑,
65', 3 - 0, Osundina K. ⚽, Livolant J. (A),
67', Tomane ↓, Nene ↑,
67', Akinsola T. ↓, Neiva G. ↑,
69', Rivas L. 🟨,
74', Conte A. 🟨,
75', 3 - 1, Nene (Penalty Awarded),
80', Brito R. ↓, Ofori L. ↑,
80', Conte A. ↓, Prieto K. ↑,
81', Kiki 🟨,
88', Goulart J. 🟨,
90', 3 - 2, Nene (Penalty Awarded),
90+3', Livolant J. ↓, Mohamed I. ↑,
90+9', 3 - 3, Neiva G. ⚽, Pedro Lima (A),

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Casa Pia will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Casa Pia: Kaique Rocha (Injury) Kiki (Knee Injury) Mendes C. (Red Card) Tchamba D. (Injury)

There will not play in AVS: Devenish C. (Red Card) Grau J. (Yellow Cards) Molina G. (Leg Injury)

There are questionable in Casa Pia: Fonte J. (Injury)

There are questionable in AVS: Galletto T. (Coach's decision) Roni (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Casa Pia won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Casa Pia	8	1	1	6	3:17	-14	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Casa Pia
Liga Portugal
16.01.26	Sporting Lisbon - Casa Pia	3:0 ✺
04.01.26	Rio Ave - Casa Pia	3:1 ✺
28.12.25	Casa Pia - Vitoria Guimarães	0:0 ✺
21.12.25	Tondela - Casa Pia	1:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
17.12.25	Casa Pia - Torreense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LLTWL
- AVS Futebol SAD
Liga Portugal
17.01.26	AVS - Arouca	0:1 ✺
03.01.26	AVS - Moreirense	0:2 ✺
29.12.25	Porto - AVS	2:0 ✺
21.12.25	AVS - Nacional	2:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
17.12.25	Vitoria Guimarães - AVS	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 LLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
15.08.25	AVS - Casa Pia	0:2
19.04.25	AVS - Casa Pia	1:1
08.12.24	Casa Pia - AVS	1:1

Casa Pia - AVS: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide