Match Info

Serie B - Round 30

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Euganeo (Padova)

Referee: Caputi M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Padova		Catanzaro

	1	X	2
	3.4	3	2.3	Watch
	3.1	3	2.35
	3.59	3.39	2.17
	3.22	3.41	2.18	Watch
	3	3.1	2.3
	3.29	2.96	2.35	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.27 ↑ (2.92)	3.14 ↑ (3.13)	2.28 ↓ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Padova
28.8%

Draw
29.9%

Catanzaro
41.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.8%

29.7%

38.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.4%

29.3%

39%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Padova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Catanzaro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Padova than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Catanzaro than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	50%	41.7%

Padova - Catanzaro Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Padova will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). Catanzaro will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Catanzaro (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 4 - 80%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Sorrentino A. (G) 4. Belli F. 55. Villa L. 5. Perrotta M. 72. Faedo C. 17. Capelli A. 8. Fusi P. 7. Varas K. (C) 77. Di Mariano F. 20. Bortolussi M. 24. Caprari G.	22. Pigliacelli M. (G) 84. Cassandro T. 4. Matias Antonini 23. Brighenti N. 27. Favasuli C. 10. Petriccione J. 20. Pontisso S. 30. Alesi G. 14. Liberali M. 9. Iemmello P. (C) 8. Pittarello F.
Substitutes
13. Boi A. 92. Buonaiuto C. 6. Crisetig L. 23. Di Maggio L. 30. Favale G. 14. Fortin M. (G) 86. Giunti G. 15. Lasagna K. 1. Mouquet L. (G) 58. Pastina C. 11. Seghetti A. 41. Silva J.	5. Bashi E. 98. Buglio D. 94. Di Francesco F. 2. Esteves G. 6. Fellipe Jack 62. Frosinini R. 39. Koffi N. 1. Marietta C. (G) 19. Nuamah P. 21. Pompetti M. 32. Rispoli F. 26. Verrengia B.
Coaches
Andreoletti M.	Aquilani A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Alesi G. ⚽, Pittarello F. (A),
36', Liberali M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
51', 0 - 2, Iemmello P. ⚽, Favasuli C. (A),
54', Caprari G. ↓, Lasagna K. ↑,
54', Belli F. ↓, Favale G. ↑,
59', Liberali M. ↓, Koffi N. ↑,
65', Di Mariano F. 🟨,
68', Di Mariano F. ↓, Buonaiuto C. ↑,
68', Fusi P. ↓, Di Maggio L. ↑,
68', Faedo C. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
74', Alesi G. ↓, Frosinini R. ↑,
74', Petriccione J. ↓, Pompetti M. ↑,
83', Favasuli C. 🟨,
85', Pittarello F. ↓, Nuamah P. ↑,
85', Pontisso S. ↓, Buglio D. ↑,
90+2', 1 - 2, Di Maggio L. ⚽,
90+4', 1 - 3, Iemmello P. ⚽, Nuamah P. (A),

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Padova has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Catanzaro is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Padova: Bacci J. (Injury) Barreca A. (Inactive) Bortolussi M. (Inactive) Harder J. (Injury) Papu Gomez (Inactive)

There will not play in Catanzaro: Cisse A. (Injury) Di Francesco F. (Inactive) Oudin R. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Catanzaro: Pittarello F. (Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Padova won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1:0.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Padova won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Outrights of Italian Serie B for now

Padova: 2.45% Catanzaro: 0.82%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Padova	5	2	1	2	5:6	-1	7
18	Catanzaro	6	1	0	5	6:12	-6	3

Last Results with these Odds

Catanzaro - the odds 2.41 are the expected chance of winning is 38.51%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Calcio Padova
Italian Serie B
07.03.26	Avellino - Padova	1:0 ✺
03.03.26	Padova - Spezia	2:2 ✺
28.02.26	Modena - Padova	1:2 ✺
21.02.26	Padova - Bari	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Sampdoria - Padova	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 LTWTL
- US Catanzaro
Italian Serie B
08.03.26	Catanzaro - Empoli	3:2 ✺
04.03.26	Carrarese - Catanzaro	3:3 ✺
01.03.26	Catanzaro - Frosinone	2:2 ✺
21.02.26	Virtus Entella - Catanzaro	1:3 ✺
14.02.26	Catanzaro - Mantova	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
19.10.25	Catanzaro - Padova	0:1
Italian Serie C Group B
29.05.22	Padova - Catanzaro	2:1
25.05.22	Catanzaro - Padova	0:0
Coppa Italia Serie C
19.01.22	Catanzaro - Padova	0:1
15.12.21	Padova - Catanzaro	1:1

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