Match Info

J1 League - Round 12

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: City Light Stadium (Okayama)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	Fagiano Okayama		Avispa Fukuoka

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.1	3.4	Watch
	2.35	3.2	3
	2.25	3	3.3
	2.32	3.19	3.57
	2.24	3.19	3.41	Watch
	2.25	2.9	3.3
	2.25	3.05	3.39	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↑ (2.26)	3.09 ↓ (3.29)	3.34 ↑ (3.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fagiano Okayama
41.5%

Draw
30.4%

Avispa Fukuoka
28.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.8%

28.7%

29.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

29.9%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fagiano Okayama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Avispa Fukuoka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avispa Fukuoka than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	28.6%	71.4%

Fagiano Okayama - Avispa Fukuoka Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Avispa Fukuoka will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Avispa Fukuoka (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Moser L. (G) 48. Tatsuta Y. 18. Tagami D. 6. Omori H. 51. Shirai K. 41. Miyamoto E. 5. Ogura K. 88. Yamane T. 27. Kimura T. 8. Esaka A. (C) 98. Werik Popo	41. Fujita K. (G) 16. Oka T. 37. Tashiro M. (C) 15. Tsujioka Y. 33. Yamawaki K. 34. Shiihashi K. 6. Shigemi M. 29. Maejima Y. 14. Nago S. 22. Fujimoto K. 7. Usui S.
Substitutes
45. Browne N. 52. Hamada T. (G) 40. Kawano K. 9. Leo Gaucho 99. Lucao 28. Matsumoto M. 26. Motoyama H. 66. Nishikawa J. 43. Suzuki Y.	47. Hashimoto Y. 5. Kamijima T. 25. Kitajima Y. 27. Michiwaki Y. 11. Miki T. 45. Miya D. 99. Obi P. O. (G) 8. Okuno K. 32. Sani Brown A.
Coaches
Kiyama T.	Tsukahara S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', Tsujioka Y. 🟨,
27', 1 - 0, Shirai K. ⚽,
45+1', Shiihashi K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Yamawaki K. ↓, Miki T. ↑,
61', 2 - 0, Yamane T. ⚽, Shirai K. (A),
62', Shiihashi K. ↓, Kitajima Y. ↑,
62', Usui S. ↓, Michiwaki Y. ↑,
65', Esaka A. ↓, Kawano K. ↑,
65', Shirai K. ↓, Motoyama H. ↑,
74', Werik Popo ↓, Lucao ↑,
74', Ogura K. ↓, Suzuki Y. ↑,
75', Nago S. ↓, Sani Brown A. ↑,
75', Oka T. ↓, Hashimoto Y. ↑,
82', Kimura T. ↓, Leo Gaucho ↑,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Okayama won 0.

Okayama is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Avispa Fukuoka is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Okayama may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Okayama might have a minor edge in this game.

There are questionable in Okayama: Kudo K. (Hamstring Injury) Motoyama H. (Injury) Tabei R. (Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Okayama won 3 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 15:19. (average 0.9:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Okayama won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:7. (average 1.1:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Okayama	4	1	1	2	3:4	-1	4
15	Avispa Fukuoka	4	1	0	3	6:6	0	3

Last Results with these Odds

Avispa Fukuoka - the odds 3.21 are the expected chance of winning is 29.45%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fagiano Okayama
Japan J1 League
19.04.26	Gamba Osaka - Fagiano Okayama	3:2 penalties ✺
11.04.26	Kyoto Sanga - Fagiano Okayama	5:1 ✺
05.04.26	Fagiano Okayama - Vissel Kobe	1:4 ✺
21.03.26	Fagiano Okayama - V-Varen Nagasaki	0:1 ✺
18.03.26	Cerezo Osaka - Fagiano Okayama	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LLLLW
- Avispa Fukuoka
Japan J1 League
22.04.26	Gamba Osaka - Avispa Fukuoka	1:2 ✺
19.04.26	Nagoya Grampus - Avispa Fukuoka	3:2 penalties ✺
11.04.26	Avispa Fukuoka - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:0 ✺
05.04.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Avispa Fukuoka	0:1 ✺
21.03.26	Avispa Fukuoka - Gamba Osaka	3:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 30.1 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
07.02.26	Avispa Fukuoka - Fagiano Okayama	2:1 penalties
15.06.25	Fagiano Okayama - Avispa Fukuoka	0:1
25.04.25	Avispa Fukuoka - Fagiano Okayama	1:1
Japan J2 League
02.12.20	Fagiano Okayama - Avispa Fukuoka	1:1
25.07.20	Avispa Fukuoka - Fagiano Okayama	1:0
21.09.19	Avispa Fukuoka - Fagiano Okayama	1:1
17.03.19	Fagiano Okayama - Avispa Fukuoka	2:1

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