Match Info

J1 League - Round 16

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Yodoko Sakura Stadium (Osaka)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT
China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan
World	Onefootball


	Cerezo Osaka		V-Varen Nagasaki

	1	X	2
	1.79	3.8	3.9	Watch
	1.85	3.6	3.8	Watch
	1.88	3.8	4.01
	1.86	3.71	3.98	Watch
	1.83	3.5	3.8
	1.85	3.72	3.88	Watch
	1.83	3.65	3.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↑ (1.83)	3.68 ↑ (3.65)	3.9 ↓ (3.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerezo Osaka
50.7%

Draw
25.4%

V-Varen Nagasaki
23.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.9%

25.5%

23.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

24.3%

22.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerezo Osaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

V-Varen Nagasaki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerezo Osaka than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for V-Varen Nagasaki than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	10%	10%

Cerezo Osaka - V Varen Nagasaki Predictions

Users Predictions: Cerezo Osaka will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Nakamura K. (G) 27. Cools D. 4. Inoue R. 44. Hatanaka S. 16. Okuda H. 18. Ishiwatari N. 10. Tanaka S. (C) 48. Shibayama M. 13. Nakajima M. 14. Yokoyama Y. 11. Thiago Andrade	13. Hatano G. (G) 48. Teruyama H. 4. Dudu Giusti 22. Onaga H. 3. Sekiguchi M. 24. Yamada R. 5. Yamaguchi H. (C) 23. Yoneda S. 41. Hasegawa M. 11. Campbell N. 18. Yamasaki R.
Substitutes
19. Homma S. 8. Kagawa S. 5. Kida H. 21. Kim Jin-Hyeon (G) 2. Nakamura T. 6. Noborizato K. 9. Sakuragawa S. 3. Tanaka H. 7. Uejo S.	21. Diego Pituca 6. Egawa Y. 1. Goto M. (G) 33. Kasayanagi T. 25. Kushibiki K. 10. Matheus Jesus 34. Matsumoto T. 17. Takahata K. 9. Thiago
Coaches
Papas A.	Takagi T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
25', 0 - 1, Yamasaki R. (Penalty Awarded),
28', 1 - 1, Thiago Andrade ⚽, Nakajima M. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
62', Campbell N. ↓, Kasayanagi T. ↑,
63', Yamasaki R. ↓, Matheus Jesus ↑,
63', Dudu Giusti ↓, Kushibiki K. ↑,
63', 2 - 1, Tanaka S. ⚽, Shibayama M. (A),
71', Hasegawa M. ↓, Thiago ↑,
72', 2 - 2, Matheus Jesus ⚽,
83', Yoneda S. ↓, Matsumoto T. ↑,
83', Nakajima M. (Penalty Awarded),
85', Yokoyama Y. ↓, Uejo S. ↑,
85', Shibayama M. ↓, Homma S. ↑,
85', Nakajima M. ↓, Kagawa S. ↑,
86', Yamada R. 🟨,
86', Thiago 🟨,
88', Thiago Andrade ↓, Sakuragawa S. ↑,
90+4', 3 - 2, Kagawa S. (Penalty Awarded),
90+11', Ishiwatari N. ↓, Tanaka H. ↑,
90+11', Nakamura K. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerezo Osaka won 4.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Cerezo Osaka is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Cerezo Osaka: Fernandes L. (Knee Injury) Sakata R. (Hamstring Injury) Takahashi T. (Back Injury) Yengi K. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in V-Varen Nagasaki: Emerson Deocleciano (Knee Injury) Nagura T. (Illness)

There are questionable in Cerezo Osaka: Fukui K. (Elbow Injury)

There are questionable in V-Varen Nagasaki: Iwasaki Y. (Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Cerezo Osaka won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:7. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Cerezo Osaka won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 2:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Cerezo Osaka	4	2	0	2	3:5	-2	6
18	V-Varen Nagasaki	4	1	0	3	4:9	-5	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cerezo Osaka
Japan J1 League
06.05.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - Cerezo Osaka	2:1 penalties ✺
03.05.26	Cerezo Osaka - Avispa Fukuoka	2:1 penalties ✺
29.04.26	Vissel Kobe - Cerezo Osaka	0:1 penalties ✺
25.04.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Cerezo Osaka	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Cerezo Osaka - Kyoto Sanga	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 LWWLW
- V-Varen Nagasaki
Japan J1 League
06.05.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Fagiano Okayama	2:1 ✺
03.05.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Nagoya Grampus	1:2 ✺
29.04.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:2 ✺
25.04.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Gamba Osaka	1:2 penalties ✺
18.04.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
28.02.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Cerezo Osaka	1:0
19.08.18	V-Varen Nagasaki - Cerezo Osaka	0:2
05.05.18	Cerezo Osaka - V-Varen Nagasaki	3:1
Japan J2 League
11.09.16	Cerezo Osaka - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:0
08.06.16	V-Varen Nagasaki - Cerezo Osaka	1:2
14.11.15	V-Varen Nagasaki - Cerezo Osaka	2:0
17.05.15	Cerezo Osaka - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:2

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