Match Info

Date: 16 October 2021, Saturday


	Chapecoense		Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.5	1.7	Watch
	5.25	3.5	1.73
	4.35	3.45	1.73	Watch
	4.8	3.5	1.72
	5.18	3.76	1.73
	4.2	3.25	1.88
	4.9	3.65	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.78 ↑ (4.26)	3.52 ↑ (3.46)	1.75 ↓ (1.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chapecoense
19.6%

Draw
26.7%

Fortaleza
53.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.1%

27.2%

50.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.4%

21.4%

64.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chapecoense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+10.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fortaleza could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13.3%	20%	66.7%

Chapecoense - Fortaleza Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Chapecoense will win (votes: 4 - 13.3%). Fortaleza will win (votes: 20 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fortaleza: 49.8% – 83.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores).

Chapecoense is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Fortaleza is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Fortaleza is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Chapecoense won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Chapecoense won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Serie A
13.10.21	Chapecoense - Athletico Paranaense	1:1 ✺
10.10.21	Internacional RS - Chapecoense	5:2 ✺
06.10.21	Chapecoense - Atlético Mineiro	2:2 ✺
03.10.21	Chapecoense - São Paulo	1:1 ✺
25.09.21	Ceará - Chapecoense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 TLTTL
- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie A
13.10.21	Fortaleza - Grêmio	1:0 ✺
09.10.21	Fortaleza - Flamengo	0:3 ✺
06.10.21	Fluminense - Fortaleza	0:2 ✺
02.10.21	Fortaleza - Atlético Goianiense	0:3 ✺
26.09.21	Sport Recife - Fortaleza	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
30.06.21	Fortaleza - Chapecoense	3:2
09.10.19	Fortaleza - Chapecoense	2:0
19.05.19	Chapecoense - Fortaleza	1:3

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