Match Info

Premier League - Round 6

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Stamford Bridge (London)

Referee: Barrott S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Chelsea		Bournemouth

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.9	4.1
	1.72	4.10	4.33
	1.82	3.85	4.15
	1.83	4.05	4.26
	1.85	4.13	4.04	Watch
	1.81	3.9	4.2
	1.84	4.17	4.32	Watch
	1.8	4	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↑ (1.78)	4.01 ↓ (4.38)	4.19 ↑ (3.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chelsea
53.1%

Draw
23.9%

Bournemouth
22.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.9%

21.9%

24.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.7%

22.6%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chelsea has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Bournemouth has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bournemouth than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.8%	12.2%	0%

Chelsea - Bournemouth Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Chelsea (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Chelsea (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

BTTS - yes (1.57) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

O/U 2.5 - over (1.57) (votes: 93%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Chelsea will win (43 of 49 users predict this - 87.76%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.58% – 96.94%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Chelsea (votes: 7 - 70%). Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

A mid-table side takes on an opponent fighting to pull away from the danger zone (ranked 10th and 17th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chelsea won 2.

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

In this matchup, Chelsea is considered the favorite to take the win.

Confirmed absences for Chelsea: Gittens J. (Ankle Injury).

Confirmed absences for Bournemouth: Adli A. (Calf Injury) Araujo J. (Thigh Injury) Kluivert J. (Muscle Injury) Kroupi E. J. (Foot Injury) Milosavljevic V. (Injury) Scott A. (Thigh Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Chelsea: Caicedo M. (Calf Injury) Emegha E. (Muscle Injury) Joao Pedro (Knee Injury) Palestra M. (Thigh Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Bournemouth: Brooks D. (Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Chelsea has recorded 12 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 32:20 (averaging 1.6:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Chelsea against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with 16:10 goals (averaging 1.6:1 per game).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Chelsea: 5.13% Bournemouth: 0.37%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	10:12	-2	7
17	Bournemouth	5	0	3	2	6:8	-2	3

Last Results with these Odds

Chelsea - the odds 1.78 are the expected chance of winning is 53.92%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chelsea
English Premier League
18.09.26	Brentford - Chelsea	3:0 ✺
12.09.26	Chelsea - Hull City	2:2 ✺
English League Cup
09.09.26	Chelsea - Leeds United	6:3 ✺
English Premier League
06.09.26	Arsenal - Chelsea	2:1 ✺
30.08.26	Chelsea - Brighton & Hove Albion	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LTWLW
- AFC Bournemouth
English Premier League
20.09.26	Bournemouth - Liverpool	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
17.09.26	Real Sociedad - Bournemouth	1:2 ✺
English Premier League
12.09.26	Bournemouth - Brentford	2:2 ✺
English League Cup
08.09.26	Bournemouth - Lincoln City	4:0 ✺
English Premier League
05.09.26	Newcastle United - Bournemouth	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LWTWT

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
30.12.25	Chelsea - Bournemouth	2:2
06.12.25	Bournemouth - Chelsea	0:0
14.01.25	Chelsea - Bournemouth	2:2
14.09.24	Bournemouth - Chelsea	0:1
19.05.24	Chelsea - Bournemouth	2:1
17.09.23	Bournemouth - Chelsea	0:0
06.05.23	Bournemouth - Chelsea	1:3

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