Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 4

Date: 25 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estádio Couto Pereira (Curitiba)

Referee: Sampaio W. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Mexico	Azteca Deportes, Fanatiz
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Usa	Fanatiz


	Coritiba		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.2	2.85	Watch
	2.9	3.2	2.45
	2.52	2.98	2.98	Watch
	2.6	3.15	3.1
	2.52	2.91	3.10	Watch
	2.45	2.9	2.9
	2.62	3.14	2.92	Watch
	3	3.14	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.63 ↓ (2.9)	3.08 ↓ (3.1)	2.84 ↑ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Coritiba
36%

Draw
30.8%

São Paulo
33.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

32.2%

30.1%

37.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.8%

29.7%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Coritiba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Coritiba than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	0%	87.5%

Coritiba - São Paulo Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Coritiba will win (votes: 2 - 12.5%). São Paulo will win (votes: 14 - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 71.3% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - São Paulo (1.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Coritiba (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): São Paulo will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Coritiba (votes: 2 - 25%). São Paulo (votes: 6 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pedro Morisco (G) 2. Tinga 3. Maicon (C) 55. Jacy 6. Felipe Jonatan 8. Wallisson 36. Vini Paulista 11. Lucas Ronier 10. Josue 77. Breno Lopes 32. Pedro Rocha	23. Rafael (C) 28. Franco A. 5. Robert Arboleda 2. Toloi R. 42. Maik 29. Pablo Maia 48. Ferreira D. 18. Wendell 80. Cauly 11. Ferreira 14. Tapia G.
Substitutes
14. Enzo Vagner 28. Fabinho 88. Fernando Sobral 39. Gustavo 17. Jean Gabriel 16. Joao Almeida 44. Joao Pedro Chermont 7. Lavega J. 12. Pedro Rangel (G) 4. Rodrigo Moledo 21. Thiago Santos 29. Willian Oliveira	16. Bobadilla D. 31. Carlos Coronel (G) 13. Diaz E. 30. Felipe Negrucci 32. Ferraresi N. 9. Jonathan Calleri 33. Luan Silva 7. Lucas Moura 10. Luciano 8. Marcos Antonio 4. Matheus Doria 21. Soares C.
Coaches
Fernando Seabra	Crespo H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Tinga ↓, Joao Pedro Chermont ↑,
36', Wallisson 🟨,
41', Ferreira D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Ferreira D. ↓, Marcos Antonio ↑,
55', Pedro Morisco 🟨,
56', Pedro Morisco ↓, Pedro Rangel ↑,
57', 0 - 1, Cauly (Penalty Awarded),
64', Franco A. 🟨,
64', Ferreira ↓, Jonathan Calleri ↑,
65', Tapia G. ↓, Lucas Moura ↑,
69', Vini Paulista ↓, Lavega J. ↑,
69', Josue ↓, Fabinho ↑,
69', Wallisson ↓, Willian Oliveira ↑,
75', Pablo Maia ↓, Luan Silva ↑,
83', Cauly ↓, Bobadilla D. ↑,
90+2', Toloi R. 🟨,
90+6', Breno Lopes 🟨,
90+9', Lavega J. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Coritiba won 0.

Coritiba has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

São Paulo is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Coritiba: Benassi (Inactive) Gomez S. (Inactive) Rodrigo Rodrigues (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Silva (Knee Injury) Carlos Coronel (Inactive) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Coritiba: Lucas Crepaldi (Inactive)

There are questionable in São Paulo: Robert Arboleda (Inactive)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Coritiba won 4 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 22:26. (average 1.2:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Coritiba won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.2:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Sao Paulo	31	12	6	13	36:35	1	42
12	Coritiba	31	10	9	12	38:49	-11	39

Last Results with these Odds

São Paulo - the odds 2.48 are the expected chance of winning is 37.66%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Coritiba
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
21.02.26	Coritiba - Operário Ferroviario	2:3 penalties ✺
14.02.26	Operário Ferroviario - Coritiba	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.02.26	Chapecoense - Coritiba	3:3 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
08.02.26	Coritiba - Cianorte	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.02.26	Cruzeiro - Coritiba	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 LTTWW
- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
21.02.26	Red Bull Bragantino - São Paulo	1:2 ✺
15.02.26	Ponte Preta - São Paulo	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.02.26	São Paulo - Grêmio	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
07.02.26	São Paulo - EC Primavera	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.02.26	Santos - São Paulo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
27.09.23	São Paulo - Coritiba	2:1
29.04.23	Coritiba - São Paulo	1:1
20.10.22	São Paulo - Coritiba	3:1
09.06.22	Coritiba - São Paulo	1:1
23.01.21	São Paulo - Coritiba	1:1
04.10.20	Coritiba - São Paulo	1:1
26.11.17	Coritiba - São Paulo	1:2

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