Match Info

League Two - Round 26

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Alexandra Stadium (Crewe)

Referee: Breakspear C. (Eng)


	Crewe Alexandra		Harrogate Town

	1	X	2
	1.51	4	5.75
	1.58	4.1	5.25
	1.55	4.15	5.4
	1.5	4.35	5.78	Watch
	1.44	4	6
	1.55	3.95	5.71	Watch
	1.47	4.33	6.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↓ (1.69)	4.13 ↑ (3.61)	5.77 ↑ (4.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Crewe Alexandra
61.4%

Draw
22.5%

Harrogate Town
16.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.3%

25.4%

20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.7%

24.8%

19.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Crewe Alexandra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Crewe Alexandra's performance.

Harrogate Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crewe Alexandra than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Crewe Alexandra that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Harrogate Town than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	0%	11.1%

Crewe Alexandra - Harrogate Town Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Crewe (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Crewe Alexandra will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
89. Lawlor I. (G) 5. Demetriou M. (C) 18. Connolly J. 2. Billington L. 3. Hutchinson R. 17. Holicek M. 6. Sanders M. H. 26. O'Reilly T. 19. Lunt O. 20. Agius C. 24. March J.	1. Oxley M. (C) 26. Horton G. 15. O'Connor A. 23. Jameson K. 7. Thomson G. 4. Evans J. 8. Morris B. 24. Cass L. 22. Smith R. 10. Bennett M. 9. McCoulsky S.
Substitutes
1. Booth T. (G) 14. Finney C. 32. Moore L. 31. Moult L. 99. Pond A. 23. Powell J. 29. Thibaut A.	2. Asare Z. 31. Belshaw J. (G) 6. Burrell W. 25. Cursons T. 44. Falkingham J. 14. McAleny C. 18. Muldoon J.
Coaches
Bell L.	Weaver S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Jameson K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Jameson K. ↓, Burrell W. ↑,
61', 1 - 0, Agius C. ⚽, Billington L. (A),
65', Bennett M. ↓, Muldoon J. ↑,
67', March J. ↓, Thibaut A. ↑,
75', Holicek M. ↓, Powell J. ↑,
82', McCoulsky S. ↓, Cursons T. ↑,
84', O'Reilly T. ↓, Finney C. ↑,
90+1', Lawlor I. 🟨,
90+3', Thibaut A. 🟨,
90+3', 1 - 1, Cursons T. ⚽, Smith R. (A),

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 10 and 24 in the zone Relegation ~ National League).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Crewe won 3.

Crewe has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Harrogate has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Crewe is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Crewe: Tabiner J. (Knee Injury) Tracey S. (Broken Leg)

There will not play in Harrogate: Duke-McKenna S. (Injury) Faulkner B. (Inactive) Gibson L. (Injury) Hill T. (Injury) Taylor E. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Crewe: Lankester J. (Knee Injury) Tezgel E. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Harrogate: Bradbury T. (Injury) Sutton L. (Inactive)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Crewe won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:4. (average 1.6:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Crewe won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:0. (average 1.8:0).

Outrights of English League Two for now

Crewe: 3.91%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Crewe	10	4	6	0	12:7	5	18

Last Results with these Odds

Harrogate Town - the odds 4.52 are the expected chance of winning is 20.29%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Crewe Alexandra
English League Two
01.01.26	Crewe Alexandra - Cheltenham Town	4:1 ✺
29.12.25	Newport County - Crewe Alexandra	2:0 ✺
26.12.25	Walsall - Crewe Alexandra	1:0 ✺
19.12.25	Crewe Alexandra - Bristol Rovers	1:1 ✺
13.12.25	Tranmere Rovers - Crewe Alexandra	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WLLTW
- Harrogate Town
English League Two
01.01.26	Harrogate Town - Tranmere Rovers	0:2 ✺
29.12.25	Accrington Stanley - Harrogate Town	1:0 ✺
26.12.25	Salford City - Harrogate Town	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Harrogate Town - Milton Keynes Dons	0:4 ✺
13.12.25	Cheltenham Town - Harrogate Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
06.10.25	Harrogate Town - Crewe Alexandra	1:2
01.02.25	Harrogate Town - Crewe Alexandra	1:1
English EFL Trophy
08.10.24	Crewe Alexandra - Harrogate Town	1:0
English League Two
21.09.24	Crewe Alexandra - Harrogate Town	3:0
17.02.24	Crewe Alexandra - Harrogate Town	0:0
28.10.23	Harrogate Town - Crewe Alexandra	0:1
18.02.23	Harrogate Town - Crewe Alexandra	2:2

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