Match Info

Date: 15 April 2022, Friday


	Derby County		Fulham

	1	X	2
	5.5	4	1.61	Watch
	5.5	4	1.61
	6	4	1.6
	5.4	3.8	1.62
	5.8	3.95	1.65
	5.8	3.8	1.57	Watch
	5.4	4.05	1.65	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.63 ↓ (6.88)	3.94 ↑ (3.7)	1.62 ↑ (1.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County
16.9%

Draw
24.1%

Fulham
58.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.6%

25.3%

61%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.5%

25.1%

61.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Fulham has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fulham than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Derby County - Fulham Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League One and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League).

Derby has the most likely position - 23 (45.08%), has project points - 34, has currently - 28, has a very good chance of relegated (97%), has not chance of prom. playoffs.

Fulham has the most likely position - 1 (96.74%), has project points - 94, has currently - 83, has not chance of relegated, has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very good chance of promoted (>99%), has a very good chance of win league (97%).

This event has quality 49, small importance 22, match rating 36. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Derby won 1.

Derby is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Fulham is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Fulham could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Fulham have a series of guest games.

In this match Fulham is a favorite.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Derby won 5 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 23-19.

Including matches at home between the teams Derby won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 14-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County
English League Championship
09.04.22	Swansea City - Derby County	2:1 ✺
02.04.22	Derby County - Preston North End	1:0 ✺
19.03.22	Derby County - Coventry City	1:1 ✺
15.03.22	Blackburn Rovers - Derby County	3:1 ✺
12.03.22	Bournemouth - Derby County	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWTLL
- Fulham FC
English League Championship
10.04.22	Fulham - Coventry City	1:3 ✺
06.04.22	Middlesbrough - Fulham	0:1 ✺
02.04.22	Queens Park Rangers - Fulham	0:2 ✺
15.03.22	West Bromwich Albion - Fulham	1:0 ✺
12.03.22	Barnsley - Fulham	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWWLT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
24.11.21	Fulham - Derby County	0:0
21.02.20	Derby County - Fulham	1:1
26.11.19	Fulham - Derby County	3:0
14.05.18	Fulham - Derby County	2:0
11.05.18	Derby County - Fulham	1:0
03.03.18	Derby County - Fulham	1:2
18.11.17	Fulham - Derby County	1:1

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