Match Info

Date: 12 March 2022, Saturday


	Bournemouth		Derby County

	1	X	2
	1.6	4	5.75
	1.6	3.9	5.75
	1.62	3.7	6.5
	1.57	3.9	5.6
	1.6	3.99	6.47
	1.61	3.6	5.8
	1.61	4.1	5.75	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↓ (1.67)	3.88 ↑ (3.64)	5.95 ↑ (5.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bournemouth
59.5%

Draw
24.5%

Derby County
16%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.6%

26%

17.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.4%

21.5%

14.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bournemouth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bournemouth than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bournemouth, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Bournemouth - Derby County Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs) and 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League One).

Bournemouth has the most likely position - 2 (62.42%), has project points - 83, has currently - 62, has not chance of relegated, has a chance of prom. playoffs (31%), has a good chance of promoted (72%), has a very small chance of win league (3%).

Derby has the most likely position - 23 (34.86%), has project points - 35, has currently - 24, has a good chance of relegated (82%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has not chance of win league.

This event has quality 45, importance 60, match rating 53. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Bournemouth won 0.

Bournemouth is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Derby is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Bournemouth could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Bournemouth is a favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Bournemouth won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 5-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Bournemouth won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Bournemouth
English League Championship
08.03.22	Bournemouth - Peterborough United	1:1 ✺
05.03.22	Preston North End - Bournemouth	2:1 ✺
26.02.22	Bournemouth - Stoke City	2:1 ✺
12.02.22	Blackpool - Bournemouth	1:2 ✺
09.02.22	Bournemouth - Birmingham City	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TLWWW
- Derby County
English League Championship
05.03.22	Derby County - Barnsley	2:0 ✺
01.03.22	Cardiff City - Derby County	1:0 ✺
26.02.22	Luton Town - Derby County	1:0 ✺
23.02.22	Derby County - Millwall	1:2 ✺
19.02.22	Derby County - Peterborough United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
21.11.21	Derby County - Bournemouth	3:2
19.01.21	Derby County - Bournemouth	1:0
31.10.20	Bournemouth - Derby County	1:1
10.02.15	Bournemouth - Derby County	2:2
30.09.14	Derby County - Bournemouth	2:0
22.02.14	Derby County - Bournemouth	1:0
23.11.13	Bournemouth - Derby County	0:1

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