Match Info

ENGLAND: EFL TROPHY

Date: 10 October 2023, Tuesday

Location: Meadow Lane (Nottingham)

Referee: Pollard C. (Eng)


	Notts County		Derby County

	1	X	2
	2.95	3.5	2
	3.1	3.6	2.1	Watch
	3.56	2.93	2.16
	2.8	3.6	2.1
	3.2	3.78	1.98
	3.1	3.55	2.07
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.12 ↑ (2.5)	3.49 ↑ (3.4)	2.07 ↓ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Notts County
29.4%

Draw
26.3%

Derby County
44.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36%

26.5%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

26.9%

36.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Notts County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Notts County's form might have worsened.

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Derby County's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Notts County than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Notts County, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Derby County, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	11.1%	77.8%

Notts County - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Notts County will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Derby will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 50.6% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Slocombe S. (G) 5. Rawlinson C. 33. Tipton O. 28. Macari L. 11. Nemane A. 16. Bostock J. (C) 6. O'Brien J. 21. Adebayo-Rowling T. 17. McGoldrick D. 27. Morias J. 8. Austin S.	31. Vickers J. (G) 2. Wilson K. 5. Bradley S. 6. Cashin E. 3. Forsyth C. 4. Hourihane C. (C) 8. Bird M. 17. Sibley L. 22. Fornah T. 7. Barkhuizen T. 9. Collins J.
Substitutes
15. Baldwin A. 2. Brindley R. 4. Cameron K. 7. Crowley D. 41. Gill Ch. 22. Munakandafa L. 26. Stone A. (G)	38. Allen C. 39. Brown D. 37. Davidson J. 24. Nyambe R. 36. Radcliffe B. 12. Smith K. 1. Wildsmith J. (G)
Coaches
Williams L.	Warne P.

Preview

Now both teams are in good shape.

Derby will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Notts County won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 2-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Notts County won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 2-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Notts County
English League Two
07.10.23	Barrow - Notts County	1:1 ✺
03.10.23	Notts County - Swindon Town	3:1 ✺
30.09.23	Colchester United - Notts County	5:4 ✺
23.09.23	Notts County - Forest Green Rovers	4:3 ✺
15.09.23	Salford City - Notts County	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TWLWW
- Derby County
English League One
07.10.23	Cheltenham Town - Derby County	1:1 ✺
03.10.23	Blackpool - Derby County	1:3 ✺
30.09.23	Derby County - Cambridge United	0:0 ✺
23.09.23	Carlisle United - Derby County	0:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
19.09.23	Derby County - Lincoln City	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
01.08.21	Notts County - Derby County	0:2
14.07.18	Notts County - Derby County	1:4
19.07.14	Notts County - Derby County	1:3

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