Match Info

Serie A - Round 8

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence)

Referee: La Penna F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Angola	Z Sports 1
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 2
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
France	DAZN France
Georgia	Setanta Sport 3
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3, M Plus Live
Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	ONE Sport 2, Sport 2
Italy	DAZN Italia, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport 4K, Sky Sport Calcio, Sky Sport Uno
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Kosovo	ART Sport 3
Kuwait	Shasha
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	VG+
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	Sport TV7
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 3
Slovenia	Arena Sport 4
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	True ID, True Premier Football 3
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	DAZN, DAZN UK
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, DAZN USA, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Fiorentina		Bologna

	1	X	2
	2.8	2.88	2.88	Watch
	2.82	2.88	2.88	Watch
	2.77	3.2	2.84
	32.20	4.60	1.23	Watch
	2.86	2.94	2.94
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.69 ↑ (2.71)	3.3 ↑ (3.23)	2.55 ↓ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Fiorentina
14.2%

Draw
37.4%

Bologna
48.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.2%

29.5%

35.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.8%

30%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fiorentina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-21%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fiorentina's form might have worsened.

Bologna has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Bologna's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+21.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fiorentina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bologna than the current prediction. (-13.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Bologna, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	28.2%	38.5%

Fiorentina - Bologna Predictions

Users Predictions: 38 users predict this event. Fiorentina will win (votes: 13 - 34.2%). Bologna will win (votes: 15 - 39.5%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 26.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bologna: 24% – 55%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 2 - 13.3%). Bologna (votes: 8 - 53.3%). Tie (votes: 5 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Fiorentina (2.32) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Bologna (1.92) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Fiorentina (1.44) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Bologna (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 21 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 5 - 23.8%). Bologna (votes: 11 - 52.4%). Tie (votes: 5 - 23.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
43. de Gea D. (G) 5. Pongracic M. 18. Mari P. 6. Ranieri L. (C) 2. Dodo 8. Mandragora R. 14. Nicolussi Caviglia H. 44. Fagioli N. 21. Gosens R. 10. Gudmundsson A. 20. Kean M.	1. Skorupski L. (G) 2. Holm E. 14. Heggem T. 26. Lucumi J. 33. Miranda J. 8. Freuler R. 19. Ferguson L. (C) 7. Orsolini R. 80. Fabbian G. 28. Cambiaghi N. 9. Castro S.
Substitutes
15. Comuzzo P. 9. Dzeko E. 22. Fazzini J. 29. Fortini N. 60. Kouadio E. 1. Lezzerini L. (G) 30. Martinelli T. (G) 27. Ndour C. 65. Parisi F. 91. Piccoli R. 24. Richardson A. 11. Sabiri A. 7. Sohm S. 26. Viti M.	10. Bernardeschi F. 16. Casale N. 24. Dallinga T. 29. De Silvestri L. 30. Dominguez B. 22. Lykogiannis C. 6. Moro N. 25. Pessina M. (G) 4. Pobega T. 13. Ravaglia F. (G) 11. Rowe J. 77. Sulemana I. 41. Vitik M. 20. Zortea N.
Coaches
Pioli S.	Niccolini D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
25', 0 - 1, Castro S. ⚽,
36', Gosens R. 🟨,
39', Freuler R. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
52', 0 - 2, Cambiaghi N. ⚽, Holm E. (A),
54', Gosens R. ↓, Fortini N. ↑,
54', Mandragora R. ↓, Ndour C. ↑,
54', Fagioli N. ↓, Dzeko E. ↑,
58', Gudmundsson A. 🟨,
65', Castro S. ↓, Dallinga T. ↑,
65', Cambiaghi N. ↓, Rowe J. ↑,
65', Nicolussi Caviglia H. ↓, Sabiri A. ↑,
71', Holm E. 🟨,
73', 1 - 2, Gudmundsson A. (Pen),
77', Orsolini R. ↓, Bernardeschi F. ↑,
77', Fabbian G. ↓, Pobega T. ↑,
83', Holm E. 🟨,
85', Ranieri L. ↓, Piccoli R. ↑,
86', Rowe J. ↓, Casale N. ↑,
88', Rowe J. 🟨,
90+3', 2 - 2, Kean M. (Pen),
90+6', Dzeko E. 🟨,
90+6', Lucumi J. 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 3.

Fiorentina has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Bologna is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Fiorentina: Kouame C. (Knee Injury) Lamptey T. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Bologna: Bonifazi K. (Inactive) De Silvestri L. (Inactive) Immobile C. (Thigh Injury) Odgaard J. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 10 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 27:19. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Fiorentina won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:6. (average 1.5:0.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Fiorentina - the odds 2.71 are the expected chance of winning is 35.16%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fiorentina
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.10.25	Rapid Wien - Fiorentina	0:3 ✺
Italian Serie A
19.10.25	Milan - Fiorentina	2:1 ✺
05.10.25	Fiorentina - Roma	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
02.10.25	Fiorentina - Sigma Olomouc	2:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
28.09.25	Pisa - Fiorentina	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WLLWT
- Bologna FC
UEFA Europa League
23.10.25	FCSB - Bologna	1:2 ✺
Italian Serie A
19.10.25	Cagliari - Bologna	0:2 ✺
05.10.25	Bologna - Pisa	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
02.10.25	Bologna - Freiburg	1:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
28.09.25	Lecce - Bologna	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
18.05.25	Fiorentina - Bologna	3:2
15.12.24	Bologna - Fiorentina	1:0
14.02.24	Bologna - Fiorentina	2:0
Coppa Italia
09.01.24	Fiorentina - Bologna	1:0 penalties
Italian Serie A
12.11.23	Fiorentina - Bologna	2:1
05.02.23	Fiorentina - Bologna	1:2
11.09.22	Bologna - Fiorentina	2:1

Upcoming Matches