Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA LEAGUE - PLAY OFFS - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 22 February 2024, Thursday

Location: Europa-Park Stadion (Freiburg)

Referee: Obrenovic R. (Slo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Belgium	VOOsport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Finland	Viaplay
Hungary	RTL3
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV4
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Freiburg		Lens

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.2	2.8
	2.6	3.2	2.75
	2.7	3.3	2.75	Watch
	2.68	3.21	2.77
	2.65	3.3	2.83
	2.45	3.25	2.8
	2.68	3.43	2.85
	2.6	3.25	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↑ (2.17)	3.27 ↓ (3.52)	2.81 ↓ (3.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Freiburg
36.5%

Draw
29.3%

Lens
34.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.5%

27.4%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.1%

25.9%

29.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Freiburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Freiburg's form might have worsened.

Lens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lens's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Freiburg, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lens than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
43.3%	36.7%	20%

Freiburg - Lens Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Freiburg will win (votes: 13 - 43.3%). Lens will win (votes: 6 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 36.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Freiburg: 25.6% – 61%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Atubolu N. (G) 17. Kubler L. 5. Gulde M. 25. Sildillia K. 33. Makengo J. 42. Doan R. 8. Eggestein M. (C) 27. Hofler N. 34. Rohl M. 22. Sallai R. 9. Holer L.	30. Samba B. (C) 24. Gradit J. 25. Khusanov A. 14. Medina F. 29. Frankowski P. 23. El Aynaoui N. 6. Abdul Samed S. 13. Jhoanner Chavez 10. Pereira da Costa D. 7. Sotoca F. 9. Wahi E.
Substitutes
20. Adamu J. 28. Ginter M. 38. Gregoritsch M. 32. Grifo V. 30. Gunter C. 21. Muller F. (G) 23. Muslija F. 6. Szalai At. 31. Uphoff B. (G) 7. Weisshaupt N.	2. Aguilar R. 18. Diouf A. 11. Fulgini A. 27. Guilavogui M. 21. Haidara M. 16. Leca J. (G) 26. Mendy N. 40. Pandor Y. (G) 22. Said W. 32. Sishuba A. 28. Thomasson A.
Coaches
Streich C.	Haise F.

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-0.

Freiburg is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Lens is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Freiburg: Ginter M. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Keitel Y. (Back Injury) Kyereh D. (Knee Injury) Lienhart P. (Groin Injury) Rosenfelder M. (Tendon Injury) Schmidt K. (Abdominal strain)

There will not play in Lens: Cabot J. (Knee Injury) Danso K. (Yellow Cards) Machado D. (Muscle Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Freiburg won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Freiburg
German Bundesliga
18.02.24	Freiburg - Eintracht Frankfurt	3:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
15.02.24	Lens - Freiburg	0:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
09.02.24	Borussia Dortmund - Freiburg	3:0 ✺
03.02.24	Freiburg - Stuttgart	1:3 ✺
27.01.24	Werder Bremen - Freiburg	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TTLLL
- RC Lens
French Ligue 1
18.02.24	Reims - Lens	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
15.02.24	Lens - Freiburg	0:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
10.02.24	Lens - Strasbourg	3:1 ✺
03.02.24	Nantes - Lens	0:1 ✺
28.01.24	Toulouse - Lens	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
15.02.24	Lens - Freiburg	0:0

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