Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 34

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Europa-Park Stadion (Freiburg)

Referee: Stegemann S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Freiburg		RB Leipzig

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.9	2.55	Watch
	2.48	3.7	2.68	Watch
	2.56	3.88	2.7
	2.57	3.85	2.51	Watch
	2.4	3.6	2.5	Watch
	2.51	4	2.62	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↓ (3.28)	3.82 ↑ (3.76)	2.59 ↑ (2.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Freiburg
38.2%

Draw
25%

RB Leipzig
36.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29%

25.3%

45.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.4%

24.8%

46.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Freiburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Freiburg's performance.

RB Leipzig has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and RB Leipzig might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (-9.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Freiburg that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (+9.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that RB Leipzig could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
29.2%	8.3%	62.5%

Freiburg - RB Leipzig Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Freiburg will win (votes: 7 - 29.2%). RB Leipzig will win (votes: 15 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for RB Leipzig: 43.1% – 81.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. RB Leipzig (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - RB Leipzig (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - RB Leipzig (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 2nd Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. RB Leipzig (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Atubolu N. (G) 29. Treu P. 28. Ginter M. 3. Lienhart P. 33. Makengo J. 8. Eggestein M. (C) 27. Hofler N. 19. Beste J. 44. Manzambi J. 7. Scherhant D. 31. Matanovic I.	1. Gulacsi P. (G) 39. Henrichs B. 4. Orban W. 23. Lukeba C. 35. Finkgrafe M. 20. Ouedraogo A. 13. Seiwald N. 14. Baumgartner C. (C) 10. Gruda B. 11. Harder C. 49. Diomande Y.
Substitutes
32. Grifo V. 30. Gunter C. 9. Holer L. 22. Irie C. 5. Jung A. 17. Kubler L. 21. Muller F. (G) 43. Ogbus B. 26. Philipp M.	9. Bakayoko J. 17. Baku R. 6. Banzuzi E. 5. Bitshiabu E. 27. Gomis T. 7. Nusa A. 40. Romulo Cardoso 24. Schlager X. 26. Vandevoordt M. (G)
Coaches
Schuster J.	Werner O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
24', 1 - 0, Beste J. ⚽,
26', 2 - 0, Matanovic I. ⚽, Manzambi J. (A),
33', 2 - 1, Ouedraogo A. ⚽, Diomande Y. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
47', 3 - 1, Ginter M. ⚽, Makengo J. (A),
60', Beste J. ↓, Grifo V. ↑,
60', Hofler N. ↓, Kubler L. ↑,
63', Henrichs B. ↓, Baku R. ↑,
64', Gruda B. ↓, Nusa A. ↑,
72', Ginter M. ↓, Ogbus B. ↑,
72', Manzambi J. ↓, Holer L. ↑,
73', Seiwald N. ↓, Gomis T. ↑,
73', Harder C. ↓, Romulo Cardoso ↑,
75', 4 - 1, Scherhant D. ⚽, Matanovic I. (A),
77', Baumgartner C. 🟨,
80', Diomande Y. ↓, Bakayoko J. ↑,
88', Matanovic I. ↓, Philipp M. ↑,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

RB Leipzig is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Freiburg won 0.

Recent form of Freiburg has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

RB Leipzig is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

RB Leipzig may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Freiburg: Suzuki Y. (Broken collarbone)

There will not play in RB Leipzig: Gebel V. (Knee Injury) Raum D. (Rest) Thomas A. (Ankle Injury) Zingerle L. (Wrist Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Freiburg won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 18:44. (average 0.9:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Freiburg won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:18. (average 1.1:1.8).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

RB Leipzig: 2.98% Freiburg: 0.75%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Freiburg	4	3	1	0	12:3	9	10
5	RB Leipzig	5	3	0	2	15:5	10	9

Last Results with these Odds

Freiburg - the odds 3.28 are the expected chance of winning is 28.99%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Freiburg
German Bundesliga
10.05.26	Hamburger SV - Freiburg	3:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
07.05.26	Freiburg - Braga	3:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
03.05.26	Freiburg - Wolfsburg	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
30.04.26	Braga - Freiburg	2:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
26.04.26	Borussia Dortmund - Freiburg	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LWTLL
- RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga
09.05.26	RB Leipzig - St. Pauli	2:1 ✺
02.05.26	Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig	4:1 ✺
24.04.26	RB Leipzig - Union Berlin	3:1 ✺
18.04.26	Eintracht Frankfurt - RB Leipzig	1:3 ✺
11.04.26	RB Leipzig - Borussia Mönchengladbach	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
14.01.26	RB Leipzig - Freiburg	2:0
08.03.25	Freiburg - RB Leipzig	0:0
26.10.24	RB Leipzig - Freiburg	3:1
06.04.24	Freiburg - RB Leipzig	1:4
12.11.23	RB Leipzig - Freiburg	3:1
06.05.23	Freiburg - RB Leipzig	0:1
German DFB Pokal
02.05.23	Freiburg - RB Leipzig	1:5

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