Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 27

Date: 20 March 2026, Friday

Location: Red Bull Arena (Leipzig)

Referee: Jablonski S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	RB Leipzig		Hoffenheim

	1	X	2
	1.91	4.1	3.5	Watch
	1.93	4.1	3.4
	1.98	3.95	3.45	Watch
	2	4.15	3.59
	1.95	4.06	3.48	Watch
	1.91	3.8	3.3
	2.01	4.13	3.63	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↑ (1.9)	4.04 ↓ (4.18)	3.48 ↑ (3.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

RB Leipzig
48.9%

Draw
23.7%

Hoffenheim
27.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.9%

22.7%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.7%

22.3%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

RB Leipzig has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Hoffenheim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hoffenheim than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.9%	20.3%	7.8%

RB Leipzig - Hoffenheim Predictions

Users Predictions: 63 users predict this event. RB Leipzig will win (votes: 46 - 73%). Hoffenheim will win (votes: 5 - 7.9%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 19%).
Confidence interval (95%) for RB Leipzig: 62% – 84%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. RB Leipzig (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - RB Leipzig (1.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. RB Leipzig (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Vandevoordt M. (G) 17. Baku R. 4. Orban W. 23. Lukeba C. 22. Raum D. (C) 24. Schlager X. 13. Seiwald N. 14. Baumgartner C. 10. Gruda B. 40. Romulo Cardoso 49. Diomande Y.	1. Baumann O. (C) 34. Coufal V. 2. Hranac R. 5. Kabak O. 13. Bernardo 22. Prass A. 6. Promel G. 18. Burger W. 29. Toure B. 11. Asllani F. 19. Lemperle T.
Substitutes
9. Bakayoko J. 6. Banzuzi E. 5. Bitshiabu E. 35. Finkgrafe M. 27. Gomis T. 11. Harder C. 39. Henrichs B. 7. Nusa A. 25. Zingerle L. (G)	25. Akpoguma K. 9. Bebou I. 20. Campbell C. 10. Damar M. 21. Hajdari A. 27. Kramaric A. 49. Lassig V. 33. Moerstedt M. 37. Philipp L. (G)
Coaches
Werner O.	Ilzer C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 0)
15', Orban W. 🟨,
17', 1 - 0, Gruda B. ⚽,
21', 2 - 0, Baumgartner C. ⚽, Raum D. (A),
23', Bernardo 🟨,
30', 3 - 0, Baumgartner C. ⚽, Gruda B. (A),
44', 4 - 0, Gruda B. ⚽, Diomande Y. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Hranac R. ↓, Hajdari A. ↑,
46', Asllani F. ↓, Kramaric A. ↑,
66', Schlager X. ↓, Banzuzi E. ↑,
66', Diomande Y. ↓, Nusa A. ↑,
69', Toure B. ↓, Campbell C. ↑,
69', Lemperle T. ↓, Moerstedt M. ↑,
76', Romulo Cardoso ↓, Harder C. ↑,
76', Baku R. ↓, Henrichs B. ↑,
76', Bernardo ↓, Damar M. ↑,
78', 5 - 0, Henrichs B. ⚽, Nusa A. (A),
82', Raum D. ↓, Finkgrafe M. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

RB Leipzig might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in RB Leipzig: Gebel V. (Knee Injury) Gulacsi P. (Knee Injury) Nedeljkovic K. (Back Injury) Ouedraogo A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Hoffenheim: Avdullahu L. (Muscle Injury) Gendrey V. (Ankle Injury) Hlozek A. (Calf Injury) Machida K. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 12 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 36:27. (average 1.8:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, RB Leipzig won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 23:11. (average 2.1:1).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

RB Leipzig: 2.84% Hoffenheim: 0.44%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	9:5	4	6
14	Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	7:10	-3	3

Last Results with these Odds

Hoffenheim - the odds 3.47 are the expected chance of winning is 27.35%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga
15.03.26	Stuttgart - RB Leipzig	1:0 ✺
07.03.26	RB Leipzig - Augsburg	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Hamburger SV - RB Leipzig	1:2 ✺
21.02.26	RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund	2:2 ✺
15.02.26	RB Leipzig - Wolfsburg	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LWWTT
- TSG Hoffenheim
German Bundesliga
14.03.26	Hoffenheim - Wolfsburg	1:1 ✺
07.03.26	Heidenheim - Hoffenheim	2:4 ✺
28.02.26	Hoffenheim - St. Pauli	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Köln - Hoffenheim	2:2 ✺
14.02.26	Hoffenheim - Freiburg	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TWLTW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
08.11.25	Hoffenheim - RB Leipzig	3:1
05.04.25	RB Leipzig - Hoffenheim	3:1
23.11.24	Hoffenheim - RB Leipzig	4:3
03.05.24	Hoffenheim - RB Leipzig	1:1
16.12.23	RB Leipzig - Hoffenheim	3:1
29.04.23	RB Leipzig - Hoffenheim	1:0
German DFB Pokal
01.02.23	RB Leipzig - Hoffenheim	3:1

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