Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 27

Date: 20 March 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Red Bull Arena (Leipzig) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Jablonski S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 2, CANAL+ Sport 1, New World Sport 1, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football, ZAP
Albania	20:30	Tring Sport 2
Angola	20:30	Z Sports 2
Argentina	16:30	Disney+
Armenia	23:30	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports
Australia	06:30	beIN Connect
Austria	20:30	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Top Event, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Belgium	20:30	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2
Brazil	16:30	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	21:30	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Cameroon	20:30	CRTV Sports
Canada	15:30	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
China	03:30	Migu, QQ Sports
Croatia	20:30	SportKlub 1
Czech Republic	20:30	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	20:30	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	21:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	20:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free, New World TV
Georgia	23:30	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	20:30	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	21:30	Nova Sports 3
Hong Kong	03:30	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	20:30	Arena 4
Iceland	19:30	Viaplay
India	01:00	Sony LIV, Vision+
Indonesia	02:30	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Israel	21:30	Sport 1
Japan	04:30	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	01:30	Setanta Sports
Laos	02:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	03:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Malta	20:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	13:30	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Mongolia	03:30	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	20:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	08:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	20:30	TV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 1
Pakistan	00:30	Tapmad
Peru	14:30	Disney+
Philippines	03:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	20:30	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	19:30	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Romania	21:30	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Russia	22:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	22:30	MBC Shahid
Serbia	20:30	Arena Premium 5
Singapore	03:30	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	20:30	Nova Sport 3, Voyo
Slovenia	20:30	Sport TV1
South Africa	21:30	SABC Plus, SABC Sport
South Korea	04:30	Coupang Play
Spain	20:30	DAZN Espana, M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 2
Sweden	20:30	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	20:30	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Top Event
Thailand	02:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	22:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	21:30	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United Kingdom	19:30	BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport
Uruguay	16:30	Disney+
Usa	15:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	15:30	Disney+
Vietnam	02:30	TV 360
International	19:30	Onefootball


	RB Leipzig		Hoffenheim

	1	X	2
	1.91	4.1	3.5	Watch
	1.93	4.1	3.4
	1.98	3.95	3.45	Watch
	2	4.15	3.59
	1.95	4.06	3.48	Watch
	1.91	3.8	3.3
	2.01	4.13	3.63	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↑ (1.9)	4.04 ↓ (4.18)	3.48 ↑ (3.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

RB Leipzig
48.9%

Draw
23.7%

Hoffenheim
27.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

49.9%

22.7%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.7%

22.4%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

RB Leipzig has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Hoffenheim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hoffenheim than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.9%	20.3%	7.8%

RB Leipzig - Hoffenheim Predictions

Users Predictions: 63 users predict this event. RB Leipzig will win (votes: 46 - 73%). Hoffenheim will win (votes: 5 - 7.9%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 19%).
Confidence interval (95%) for RB Leipzig: 62% – 84%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. RB Leipzig (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - RB Leipzig (1.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. RB Leipzig (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Vandevoordt M. (G) 17. Baku R. 4. Orban W. 23. Lukeba C. 22. Raum D. (C) 24. Schlager X. 13. Seiwald N. 14. Baumgartner C. 10. Gruda B. 40. Romulo Cardoso 49. Diomande Y.	1. Baumann O. (C) 34. Coufal V. 2. Hranac R. 5. Kabak O. 13. Bernardo 22. Prass A. 6. Promel G. 18. Burger W. 29. Toure B. 11. Asllani F. 19. Lemperle T.
Substitutes
9. Bakayoko J. 6. Banzuzi E. 5. Bitshiabu E. 35. Finkgrafe M. 27. Gomis T. 11. Harder C. 39. Henrichs B. 7. Nusa A. 25. Zingerle L. (G)	25. Akpoguma K. 9. Bebou I. 20. Campbell C. 10. Damar M. 21. Hajdari A. 27. Kramaric A. 49. Lassig V. 33. Moerstedt M. 37. Philipp L. (G)
Coaches
Werner O.	Ilzer C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 0)
15', Orban W. 🟨,
17', 1 - 0, Gruda B. ⚽,
21', 2 - 0, Baumgartner C. ⚽, Raum D. (A),
23', Bernardo 🟨,
30', 3 - 0, Baumgartner C. ⚽, Gruda B. (A),
44', 4 - 0, Gruda B. ⚽, Diomande Y. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Hranac R. ↓, Hajdari A. ↑,
46', Asllani F. ↓, Kramaric A. ↑,
66', Schlager X. ↓, Banzuzi E. ↑,
66', Diomande Y. ↓, Nusa A. ↑,
69', Toure B. ↓, Campbell C. ↑,
69', Lemperle T. ↓, Moerstedt M. ↑,
76', Romulo Cardoso ↓, Harder C. ↑,
76', Baku R. ↓, Henrichs B. ↑,
76', Bernardo ↓, Damar M. ↑,
78', 5 - 0, Henrichs B. ⚽, Nusa A. (A),
82', Raum D. ↓, Finkgrafe M. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

RB Leipzig might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in RB Leipzig: Gebel V. (Knee Injury) Gulacsi P. (Knee Injury) Nedeljkovic K. (Back Injury) Ouedraogo A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Hoffenheim: Avdullahu L. (Muscle Injury) Gendrey V. (Ankle Injury) Hlozek A. (Calf Injury) Machida K. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 12 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 36:27. (average 1.8:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, RB Leipzig won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 23:11. (average 2.1:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	RB Leipzig	7	4	0	3	20:11	9	12
10	Hoffenheim	7	3	0	4	14:14	0	9

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

RB Leipzig: 2.15% Hoffenheim: 0.24%

Last Results with these Odds

Hoffenheim - the odds 3.47 are the expected chance of winning is 27.35%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga
15.03.26	Stuttgart - RB Leipzig	1:0 ✺
07.03.26	RB Leipzig - Augsburg	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Hamburger SV - RB Leipzig	1:2 ✺
21.02.26	RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund	2:2 ✺
15.02.26	RB Leipzig - Wolfsburg	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LWWTT
- TSG Hoffenheim
German Bundesliga
14.03.26	Hoffenheim - Wolfsburg	1:1 ✺
07.03.26	Heidenheim - Hoffenheim	2:4 ✺
28.02.26	Hoffenheim - St. Pauli	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Köln - Hoffenheim	2:2 ✺
14.02.26	Hoffenheim - Freiburg	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TWLTW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
08.11.25	Hoffenheim - RB Leipzig	3:1
05.04.25	RB Leipzig - Hoffenheim	3:1
23.11.24	Hoffenheim - RB Leipzig	4:3
03.05.24	Hoffenheim - RB Leipzig	1:1
16.12.23	RB Leipzig - Hoffenheim	3:1
29.04.23	RB Leipzig - Hoffenheim	1:0
German DFB Pokal
01.02.23	RB Leipzig - Hoffenheim	3:1

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