Match Info

GERMANY: Bundesliga - Round 17

Date: 14 January 2025, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Holstein-Stadion (Kiel) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Petersen M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	New World Sport App
Argentina	14:30	ESPN 2
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Australia	04:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	18:30	Sky Go Austria
Azerbaijan	21:30	Idman TV
Belgium	18:30	DAZN 1, DAZN 2, Play Sports 1
Bosnia And Herzegovina	18:30	Sportklub 3
Brazil	14:30	Canal GOAT
Bulgaria	19:30	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	12:30	DAZN Canada
Chile	14:30	ESPN Premium
China	01:30	ZhiBo8
Colombia	12:30	ESPN 2
Croatia	18:30	SportKlub 3
Czech Republic	18:30	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	18:30	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Europe	—	Go3 Sport Open Baltic
Finland	19:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay, V Sport 2
France	18:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Free
Georgia	21:30	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	18:30	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga, Sky Sport Top event, WOW
Greece	19:30	Nova Sports 4
Hong Kong	01:30	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
Hungary	18:30	Arena 4, Net4+
Iceland	17:30	Viaplay, Vodafone Sport
India	23:00	Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2, Vision+
Indonesia	00:30	MNC Soccer Channel, RCTI+
Ireland	17:30	NOW
Israel	19:30	Sport 2
Italy	18:30	NOW TV, Sky Sport 253
Japan	02:30	SKY PerfecTV!, Sukachan 6
Laos	00:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	01:30	beIN Connect
Mexico	11:30	Sky Sport
Montenegro	18:30	Sportklub 3
Netherlands	18:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	06:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
North Macedonia	18:30	SportKlub 3
Norway	18:30	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Pakistan	22:30	Tapmad
Philippines	01:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	18:30	Eleven Sports 1, Viaplay
Portugal	17:30	DAZN 1
Romania	19:30	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	20:30	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Slovakia	18:30	Sport TV2, Voyo
South America	—	ESPN 2 South
South Korea	02:30	Coupang Play
Spain	18:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	18:30	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	18:30	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Thailand	00:30	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	20:30	beIN Connect, Tivibu Spor 2
United Kingdom	17:30	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports+
Usa	12:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	13:30	Inter
Vietnam	00:30	ON Plus
International	17:30	Disney+, Onefootball, Prima+ app


	Holstein Kiel		Borussia Dortmund

	1	X	2
				Watch
				Watch
				Watch
	5	4.5	1.57	Watch
				Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5 ↓ (6.1)	4.5 ↓ (4.96)	1.57 ↑ (1.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Holstein Kiel
18.9%

Draw
21%

Borussia Dortmund
60.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

15.6%

19.2%

65.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.2%

18.7%

66.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Holstein Kiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Borussia Dortmund has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Borussia Dortmund could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.6%	7.1%	70.2%

Holstein Kiel - Borussia Dortmund Predictions

Users Predictions: 84 users predict this event. Holstein Kiel will win (votes: 19 - 22.6%). Borussia D will win (votes: 59 - 70.2%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 7.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Borussia D: 60.4% – 80%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Weiner T. (G) 17. Becker T. (C) 26. Zec D. 3. Komenda M. 23. Rosenboom L. 22. Remberg N. 24. Knudsen M. 8. Porath F. 11. Bernhardsson A. 18. Machino S. 19. Harres P.	1. Kobel G. (G) 26. Ryerson J. 23. Can E. (C) 4. Schlotterbeck N. 5. Bensebaini R. 20. Sabitzer M. 8. Nmecha F. 16. Duranville J. 10. Brandt J. 43. Gittens J. 9. Guirassy S.
Substitutes
20. Arp J.-F. 21. Dahne T. (G) 14. Geschwill M. 37. Gigovic A. 10. Holtby L. 6. Ivezic M. 33. Javorcek D. 16. Kelati A. Y. 9. Pichler B.	3. Anton W. 14. Beier M. 37. Campbell C. 2. Couto Y. 42. Kabar A. 49. Luhrs Y. 33. Meyer A. (G) 7. Reyna G. 38. Watjen K.
Coaches
Rapp M.	Sahin N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
27', 1 - 0, Machino S. ⚽, Bernhardsson A. (A),
32', 2 - 0, Harres P. ⚽, Rosenboom L. (A),
42', Duranville J. 🟨,
45+4', 3 - 0, Bernhardsson A. ⚽, Harres P. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Ryerson J. ↓, Anton W. ↑,
46', Bensebaini R. ↓, Beier M. ↑,
59', Sabitzer M. ↓, Reyna G. ↑,
59', Duranville J. ↓, Couto Y. ↑,
69', Bernhardsson A. ↓, Gigovic A. ↑,
71', 3 - 1, Reyna G. ⚽, Anton W. (A),
76', Harres P. ↓, Arp J.-F. ↑,
76', Machino S. ↓, Holtby L. ↑,
76', Komenda M. ↓, Geschwill M. ↑,
77', 3 - 2, Gittens J. ⚽, Beier M. (A),
82', Porath F. 🟨,
84', Porath F. ↓, Javorcek D. ↑,
86', Holtby L. 🟥,
86', Anton W. 🟨,
90+8', 4 - 2, Arp J.-F. ⚽,
90+9', Arp J.-F. 🟨,

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 8).

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Holstein Kiel could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Borussia D is a favorite.

There will not play in Holstein Kiel: Erras P. (Concussion) Kleine-Bekel C. (Knee Injury) Skrzybski S. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Borussia D: Adeyemi K. (Illness) Gross P. (Red Card) Malen D. (Illness) Schlotterbeck N. (Illness) Sule N. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Holstein Kiel: Schulz M. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Borussia D: Anton W. (Illness) Bensebaini R. (Illness) Can E. (Illness) Gittens J. (Illness) Mane F. (Illness) Meyer A. (Illness)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Holstein Kiel won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Holstein Kiel
German Bundesliga
11.01.25	Freiburg - Holstein Kiel	3:2 ✺
Club Friendly
05.01.25	Union Berlin - Holstein Kiel	1:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
21.12.24	Holstein Kiel - Augsburg	5:1 ✺
14.12.24	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Holstein Kiel	4:1 ✺
07.12.24	Holstein Kiel - RB Leipzig	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 LWWLL
- Borussia Dortmund
German Bundesliga
10.01.25	Borussia Dortmund - Bayer Leverkusen	2:3 ✺
22.12.24	Wolfsburg - Borussia Dortmund	1:3 ✺
15.12.24	Borussia Dortmund - Hoffenheim	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
11.12.24	Borussia Dortmund - Barcelona	2:3 ✺
German Bundesliga
07.12.24	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Borussia Dortmund	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LWTLT

Latest Head to Head

German DFB Pokal
01.05.21	Borussia Dortmund - Holstein Kiel	5:0

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