Match Info

K League 1 - Round 13

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Gimcheon Stadium (Gimcheon)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
South-korea	Coupang Play, ENA Sports
World	K League TV


	Gimcheon Sangmu		Incheon United

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.2	3.25	Watch
	2.4	3.2	2.87
	2.18	3.1	3.2
	2.28	3.21	3.63
	2.2	3.11	3.46	Watch
	2.2	2.9	3.4
	2.21	3.1	3.43	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↓ (2.45)	3.12 ↓ (3.17)	3.32 ↑ (2.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gimcheon Sangmu
42%

Draw
29.9%

Incheon United
28.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.1%

29.4%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.1%

29.4%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gimcheon Sangmu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Incheon United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gimcheon Sangmu than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Incheon United than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	62.5%	25%

Gimcheon Sangmu - Incheon United Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Gimcheon Sangmu will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Incheon will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Baek Jong-beom (G) 11. Kim Tae-Hwan 45. Byeon Jun-Soo 26. Lee Jung-Taek 3. Park Cheol-Woo 6. Lee Soo-Bin 55. Park T. 7. Go Jae-Hyeon 47. Lee Sang-Heon 17. Kim Joo-Chan 9. Lee G.	1. Kim Dong-Heon (G) 39. Kim Myung-soon 4. Kim Gun-Hee 2. Ibiza 3. Lee Sang-Gi 72. Lee Chung-Yong 5. Lee Myoung-Joo 15. Seo Jae-Min 11. Gerso 10. Lee Dong-Ryul 99. Ferrier M.
Substitutes
42. Hong Si-Hoo 57. Jung Jae-Min 21. Kim In-Gyun 20. Lee Chan-Wook 56. Lee K. 15. Lim Dug-Keun 37. Moon Hyeon-Ho (G) 33. Park Jin-Seong 14. Park Se-Jin	13. Choi Seung-gu 23. Jeong Chi-In 88. Jung Won-Jin 17. Kim Seong-Min 32. Lee Ju-Yong 31. Lee Sang-hyeon (G) 19. Park Ho-Min 20. Park Kyung-sub 77. Park Seung-Ho
Coaches
Joo S.	Yoon Jong-Hwan

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
18', Lee Jung-Taek 🟨,
22', Lee Jung-Taek ↓, Lee Chan-Wook ↑,
27', 0 - 1, Ibiza ⚽, Lee Myoung-Joo (A),
31', Ibiza 🟨,
45+2', Lee Sang-Gi 🟨,
45+5', 0 - 2, Lee Dong-Ryul ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', 0 - 3, Ferrier M. ⚽,
59', Kim Joo-Chan ↓, Kim In-Gyun ↑,
59', Kim Tae-Hwan ↓, Hong Si-Hoo ↑,
59', Lee Soo-Bin ↓, Lim Dug-Keun ↑,
59', Gerso ↓, Jeong Chi-In ↑,
59', Lee Dong-Ryul ↓, Park Seung-Ho ↑,
70', Lee Sang-Gi 🟨,
72', Ferrier M. ↓, Lee Ju-Yong ↑,
75', Lee Sang-Heon ↓, Jung Jae-Min ↑,
81', Ibiza ↓, Park Kyung-sub ↑,
81', Lee Chung-Yong ↓, Kim Seong-Min ↑,
85', Lee Myoung-Joo 🟨,
90', Park Seung-Ho 🟨,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 10 in the zone K League 1 (Relegation Group: ) and 8 in the zone K League 1 (Relegation Group: ))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gimcheon Sangmu won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Gimcheon Sangmu won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 23:24. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Gimcheon Sangmu won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:11. (average 1.8:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Incheon	31	11	9	11	39:33	6	42
10	Gimcheon Sangmu ✔	31	5	18	8	30:37	-7	33

Last Results with these Odds

Gimcheon Sangmu - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 38.07%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Incheon United - the odds 2.87 are the expected chance of winning is 32.5%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gimcheon Sangmu FC
South Korean K-League 1
05.05.26	Gimcheon Sangmu - Ulsan HD	1:2 ✺
02.05.26	FC Seoul - Gimcheon Sangmu	2:3 ✺
25.04.26	Bucheon - Gimcheon Sangmu	0:2 ✺
21.04.26	Gimcheon Sangmu - Gangwon	0:3 ✺
18.04.26	Jeju - Gimcheon Sangmu	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 LWWLT
- Incheon United
South Korean K-League 1
05.05.26	Daejeon Citizen - Incheon United	0:0 ✺
02.05.26	Incheon United - Gangwon	0:1 ✺
25.04.26	Incheon United - Jeju	1:0 ✺
21.04.26	Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors - Incheon United	1:2 ✺
18.04.26	Bucheon - Incheon United	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 TLWWT

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K-League 1
05.04.26	Incheon United - Gimcheon Sangmu	2:1
15.09.24	Gimcheon Sangmu - Incheon United	2:0
05.07.24	Incheon United - Gimcheon Sangmu	1:1
South Korean Cup
19.06.24	Incheon United - Gimcheon Sangmu	1:0 penalties
South Korean K-League 1
05.05.24	Gimcheon Sangmu - Incheon United	2:2
18.09.22	Gimcheon Sangmu - Incheon United	1:0
16.07.22	Gimcheon Sangmu - Incheon United	0:1

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