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Current Win Probability
Kairat 65.8%
Draw 20.7%
Tobol Kostanay 13.5%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
48.2%
27.3%
24.5%
Our Initial ML Estimation
48.8%
27%
24.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Kairat has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Kairat's performance.
Tobol Kostanay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tobol Kostanay might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kairat than the current prediction. (-17%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Kairat that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tobol Kostanay than the current prediction. (+10.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tobol Kostanay could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Kairat - Tobol Kostanay Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Anarbekov T. (G) 24. Mrynskiy A. 14. Martynovich A. (C) 8. Baybek O. 5. Kurgin L. 22. Mendonsa G. 13. Oksanen J. 19. Jukkola O. 28. Gual M. 3. Mata L. 9. Edmilson
1. Busurmanov S. (G) 21. Zhagorov N. 4. Cavnic N. 5. Ndiaye P. 25. Borsic A. 8. Tagybergen A. (C) 6. Myakish M. 30. Guerra L. 14. Talal A. 99. Lisakovich V. 18. Milovanovic U.
Substitutes
27. Abish M. 81. Bekbolat I. 15. Birkurmanov M. 82. Kalmurza S. (G) 4. Kasabulat D. 44. Lucas Africo 71. Makhametzhan K. 6. Sadybekov A. 25. Shirobokov A. 20. Tapalov E. 17. Tuyakbaev A.
3. Asrankulov R. 34. Bakhytkiriev S. 22. Marochkin A. 35. Melikhov Y. (G) 56. Musaev E. 72. Senhadji R. 19. Zhumat D. 57. Zinadin A.
Coaches
Urazbakhtin R.
Romashchenko M.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 2)
18', 0 - 1, Milovanovic U. (Penalty Awarded),
28', Myakish M. 🟨,
34', Kurgin L. ↓, Tuyakbaev A. ↑,
40', 1 - 1, Gual M. ⚽, Edmilson (A),
44', 1 - 2, Milovanovic U. ⚽, Lisakovich V. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Baybek O. ↓, Lucas Africo ↑,
58', Jukkola O. ↓, Bekbolat I. ↑,
63', 1 - 3, Lisakovich V. ⚽, Tagybergen A. (A),
64', Gual M. 🟨,
81', 1 - 4, Guerra L. ⚽,
82', Talal A. ↓, Zhumat D. ↑,
83', Martynovich A. ↓, Shirobokov A. ↑,
84', Edmilson ↓, Birkurmanov M. ↑,
90', Zhagorov N. ↓, Senhadji R. ↑,
Preview
This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 8).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kairat won 2.
Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
Tobol may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Kairat is the clear favorite.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kairat won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 42:37. (average 2.1:1.9).
Including home matches between the teams, Kairat won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 18:19. (average 1.8:1.9).
Kazakhstan
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Anarbekov T. (G) 
Martynovich A. (C) 
Mendonsa G. 
Oksanen J. 
Gual M. 
Edmilson 
Cavnic N. 
Ndiaye P. 
Borsic A. 
Guerra L. 
Talal A. 
Milovanovic U. 
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