Match Info

ITALY: SERIE A - ROUND 30

Date: 16 April 2023, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadio Via del Mare (Lecce) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Mariani M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Bulgaria	13:30	Max Sport 3
Croatia	12:30	Arena Sport
Czech Republic	12:30	Nova Sport 4
Finland	13:30	CMore, CMore Sport
France	12:30	beIN Sports Max
Hungary	12:30	Sport 1
Italy	12:30	Sky Sport
Poland	12:30	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	11:30	Sport TV
Romania	13:30	Prima Sport 1
Serbia	12:30	Arena Sport
Slovenia	12:30	Arena Sport
Sweden	12:30	CMore Live
United Kingdom	11:30	BT Sport
International	10:30	Setanta Sports Eurasia


	Lecce		Sampdoria

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.3	5	Watch
	1.88	3.25	4.5
	1.87	3.3	4.6
	1.85	3.3	4.75
	1.87	3.39	5.01
	1.83	3.25	5
	1.84	3.35	4.8	Watch
	1.85	3.4	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (1.99)	3.32 ↑ (3.22)	4.81 ↑ (4.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lecce
51.5%

Draw
28.7%

Sampdoria
19.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

47.7%

29.5%

22.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.3%

28.5%

22.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lecce has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Sampdoria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lecce than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sampdoria than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	13.3%	16.7%

Lecce - Sampdoria Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Lecce will win (votes: 21 - 70%). Sampdoria will win (votes: 5 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lecce: 53.6% – 86.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 16 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

Lecce has the most likely position - 15 (31.83%), project points - 38, currently - 27, a small chance of relegated (9%), a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), not chance of win league.

Sampdoria has the most likely position - 20 (77.03%), project points - 23, currently - 15, a very good chance of relegated (98%), not chance of qualify for ucl.

This event has quality 52, small importance 19, match rating 36. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Lecce has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Sampdoria is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Lecce is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Lecce won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Lecce won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Lecce
Italian Serie A
07.04.23	Lecce - Napoli	1:2 ✺
03.04.23	Empoli - Lecce	1:0 ✺
19.03.23	Fiorentina - Lecce	1:0 ✺
12.03.23	Lecce - Torino	0:2 ✺
05.03.23	Inter Milan - Lecce	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Sampdoria
Italian Serie A
08.04.23	Sampdoria - Cremonese	2:3 ✺
02.04.23	Roma - Sampdoria	3:0 ✺
19.03.23	Sampdoria - Verona	3:1 ✺
12.03.23	Juventus - Sampdoria	4:2 ✺
05.03.23	Sampdoria - Salernitana	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
12.11.22	Sampdoria - Lecce	0:2
01.07.20	Lecce - Sampdoria	1:2
30.10.19	Sampdoria - Lecce	1:1

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Lecce
Italian Serie A
01.11.26	Lecce - Genoa	✺
29.10.26	Frosinone - Lecce	✺
- Sampdoria
Italian Serie B
31.10.26	Sampdoria - Virtus Entella	✺

Lecce - Sampdoria