Match Info

FA Cup - 1/32-finals

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Craven Cottage (London)

Referee: Smith L. (Eng)

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	Fulham		Middlesbrough

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.5	3.75
	1.66	3.7	4.6
	2.02	3.45	3.7
	1.86	3.55	4.3	Watch
	1.91	3.25	3.75
	1.97	3.62	4.08	Watch
	1.85	3.4	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↑ (1.6)	3.5 ↓ (3.99)	4.07 ↓ (5.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fulham
50%

Draw
26.9%

Middlesbrough
23.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.5%

23.5%

17.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.6%

22.7%

17.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fulham has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fulham's form might have worsened.

Middlesbrough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Middlesbrough's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fulham than the current prediction. (+10.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fulham, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Middlesbrough than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Middlesbrough, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	33.3%	11.1%

Fulham - Middlesbrough Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Fulham will win (votes: 10 - 58.8%). Middlesbrough will win (votes: 1 - 5.9%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 35.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fulham: 35.4% – 82.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Fulham (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Middlesbrough (4.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Fulham (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Middlesbrough (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Lecomte B. (G) 21. Castagne T. 31. Diop I. 15. Cuenca J. 30. Sessegnon R. 6. Reed H. (C) 20. Lukic S. 11. Traore A. 32. Smith Rowe E. 22. Kevin 18. Kusi Asare J.	31. Brynn S. (G) 16. Browne A. 29. Malanda A. 12. Ayling L. 3. Targett M. 14. Gilbert A. 18. Morris A. 22. Silvera S. 7. Hackney H. (C) 11. Whittaker M. 9. Conway T.
Substitutes
35. Amissah S. 5. Andersen J. 16. Berge S. 10. Cairney T. 7. Jimenez R. 1. Leno B. (G) 38. Ridgeon S. 33. Robinson A. 8. Wilson H.	10. Burgzorg D. 6. Fry D. 17. Hamilton M. 27. Hansen S. 44. Ibeh C. 42. Kante A. 40. McCormick G. 33. McLaughlin J. (G) 19. Nypan S.
Coaches
Silva M.	Hellberg K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
26', Gilbert A. 🟨,
30', 0 - 1, Hackney H. ⚽, Silvera S. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
56', Kusi Asare J. ↓, Jimenez R. ↑,
56', Reed H. ↓, Cairney T. ↑,
56', Traore A. ↓, Wilson H. ↑,
61', 1 - 1, Wilson H. ⚽, Kevin (A),
63', Conway T. ↓, Burgzorg D. ↑,
66', Sessegnon R. ↓, Robinson A. ↑,
68', Burgzorg D. 🟨,
72', Cuenca J. 🟨,
77', 2 - 1, Smith Rowe E. ⚽, Cairney T. (A),
80', Whittaker M. ↓, Ibeh C. ↑,
80', Ayling L. ↓, Fry D. ↑,
81', Hackney H. ↓, Nypan S. ↑,
86', Smith Rowe E. ↓, Berge S. ↑,
86', Targett M. ↓, Hansen S. ↑,
90+3', 3 - 1, Kevin ⚽, Wilson H. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fulham won 3.

Fulham is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Middlesbrough is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Middlesbrough may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Fulham is considered a favorite.

We predict that Fulham will win today's game, with odds of 1.63.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Fulham won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Fulham won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:8. (average 1.5:1.3).

Outrights of English FA Cup for now

Fulham: 1.6% Middlesbrough: 0.51%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fulham FC
English Premier League
07.01.26	Fulham - Chelsea	2:1 ✺
04.01.26	Fulham - Liverpool	2:2 ✺
01.01.26	Crystal Palace - Fulham	1:1 ✺
27.12.25	West Ham United - Fulham	0:1 ✺
22.12.25	Fulham - Nottingham Forest	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.8 WTTWW
- Middlesbrough FC
English League Championship
04.01.26	Middlesbrough - Southampton	4:0 ✺
01.01.26	Derby County - Middlesbrough	1:0 ✺
29.12.25	Middlesbrough - Hull City	0:1 ✺
26.12.25	Middlesbrough - Blackburn Rovers	0:0 ✺
20.12.25	Bristol City - Middlesbrough	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
06.04.22	Middlesbrough - Fulham	0:1
08.08.21	Fulham - Middlesbrough	1:1
17.01.20	Fulham - Middlesbrough	1:0
26.10.19	Middlesbrough - Fulham	0:0
13.01.18	Middlesbrough - Fulham	0:1
23.09.17	Fulham - Middlesbrough	1:1
English League Cup
24.08.16	Fulham - Middlesbrough	2:1 ET

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