Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 34

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade du Moustoir (Lorient)

Referee: Turpin C. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	Onefootball


	Lorient		Le Havre

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.5	2.63	Watch
	2.62	3.45	2.62	Watch
	2.67	3.59	2.72
	2.61	3.5	2.61	Watch
	2.5	3.4	2.5
	2.7	3.64	2.7	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↑ (2.01)	3.51 ↓ (3.7)	2.63 ↓ (3.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorient
36.5%

Draw
27.2%

Le Havre
36.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47%

25.5%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.2%

25.6%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorient has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lorient's form might have worsened.

Le Havre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Le Havre's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorient than the current prediction. (+10.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lorient, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Le Havre than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Le Havre, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	32%	48%

Lorient - Le Havre Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Lorient will win (votes: 5 - 20.8%). Le Havre will win (votes: 12 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 29.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Le Havre: 30% – 70%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Le Havre (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
38. Mvogo Y. (G) 32. Adjei N. 3. Talbi M. 25. Faye A. 77. Katseris P. 8. Cadiou N. 6. Abergel L. (C) 43. Kouassi A. 17. Makengo J. 10. Pagis P. 12. Dieng B.	99. Diaw M. (G) 93. Sangante A. (C) 6. Youte Kinkoue E. 4. Lloris G. 27. Vinette E. K. 14. Ndiaye R. 8. Kechta Y. 13. Doucoure F. 17. Boufal S. 45. Soumare I. 25. Samatta A.
Substitutes
62. Avom A. 9. Bamba M. 2. Igor Silva 29. Karim D. 1. Leroy B. (G) 5. Meite B. 28. Soumano S. 15. Tosin A. 44. Yongwa D.	26. Ebonog S. 33. Gomis G. 11. Kyeremeh G. 10. Mambimbi F. 78. Mosengo D. N. 77. Mpasi-Nzau L. (G) 7. Nego L. 20. Obougou N. 32. Pembele T.
Coaches
Pantaloni O.	Digard D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
33', 0 - 1, Faye A. (Own goal),
41', Abergel L. 🟨,
45+2', Vinette E. K. 🟨,
45+5', Dieng B. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Vinette E. K. ↓, Pembele T. ↑,
53', Cadiou N. 🟨,
62', 0 - 2, Soumare I. ⚽, Boufal S. (A),
66', Abergel L. ↓, Avom A. ↑,
67', Makengo J. ↓, Karim D. ↑,
67', Pagis P. ↓, Tosin A. ↑,
73', Kechta Y. ↓, Ebonog S. ↑,
73', Doucoure F. ↓, Nego L. ↑,
73', Adjei N. ↓, Meite B. ↑,
81', Dieng B. ↓, Soumano S. ↑,
85', Boufal S. ↓, Mambimbi F. ↑,
90+3', Sangante A. ↓, Gomis G. ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 9 and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lorient won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Le Havre may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Lorient: Le Bris T. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Le Havre: Gourna-Douath L. (Yellow Cards) Seko A. (Yellow Cards) Toure A. (Knee Injury) Zagadou S. (Injury)

There are questionable in Le Havre: Nego L. (Calf Injury) Zouaoui Y. (Calf Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Lorient won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:14. (average 1.4:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Lorient won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 1:0.8).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Lorient: 0.34% Le Havre: 0.18%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Lorient	5	1	2	2	5:6	-1	5
18	Le Havre	5	0	2	3	4:7	-3	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Lorient
French Ligue 1
10.05.26	Metz - Lorient	0:4 ✺
02.05.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Lorient	2:2 ✺
26.04.26	Lorient - Strasbourg	2:3 ✺
18.04.26	Lorient - Olympique Marseille	2:0 ✺
12.04.26	Lyon - Lorient	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22 WTLWL
- Le Havre AC
French Ligue 1
10.05.26	Le Havre - Olympique Marseille	0:1 ✺
03.05.26	Lille - Le Havre	1:1 ✺
26.04.26	Le Havre - Metz	4:4 ✺
18.04.26	Angers - Le Havre	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Nice - Le Havre	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 LTTTT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
21.09.25	Le Havre - Lorient	1:1
28.01.24	Lorient - Le Havre	3:3
03.09.23	Le Havre - Lorient	3:0
Club Friendly
29.07.23	Le Havre - Lorient	0:2
French Ligue 2
19.10.19	Le Havre - Lorient	2:2
17.05.19	Le Havre - Lorient	2:3
28.07.18	Lorient - Le Havre	0:0

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