Match Info

Date: 19 March 2022, Saturday


	Mainz		Arminia Bielefeld

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.8	6.5	Watch
	1.6	3.75	6
	1.54	3.8	7
	1.6	3.8	5.8
	1.59	3.91	7.06
	1.57	3.7	6.5	Watch
	1.59	4.05	6.7	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.71)	3.83 ↑ (3.66)	6.51 ↑ (5.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mainz
60.4%

Draw
24.9%

Arminia Bielefeld
14.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.7%

26%

18.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.1%

21.3%

15%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Arminia Bielefeld has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mainz, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arminia Bielefeld than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.2%	4.2%	23.6%

Mainz - Arminia Bielefeld Predictions

Users Predictions: 72 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 52 - 72.2%). Arminia will win (votes: 17 - 23.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 4.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 61.9% – 82.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Mainz has the most likely position - 9 (19.83%), has project points - 47, has currently - 34, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Arminia has the most likely position - 16 (29.82%), has project points - 32, has currently - 25, has a chance of relegated (30%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has not chance of win league.

This event has quality 64, small importance 26, match rating 45. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches Mainz is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Arminia is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Mainz could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Mainz is absolute favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Mainz won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Mainz won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
16.03.22	Mainz - Borussia Dortmund	0:1 ✺
26.02.22	Union Berlin - Mainz	3:1 ✺
18.02.22	Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen	3:2 ✺
12.02.22	Freiburg - Mainz	1:1 ✺
05.02.22	Mainz - Hoffenheim	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LLWTW
- Arminia Bielefeld
German Bundesliga
13.03.22	Borussia Dortmund - Arminia Bielefeld	1:0 ✺
04.03.22	Arminia Bielefeld - Augsburg	0:1 ✺
26.02.22	Bayer Leverkusen - Arminia Bielefeld	3:0 ✺
19.02.22	Arminia Bielefeld - Union Berlin	1:0 ✺
13.02.22	Hoffenheim - Arminia Bielefeld	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
30.10.21	Arminia Bielefeld - Mainz	1:2
German DFB Pokal
26.10.21	Mainz - Arminia Bielefeld	3:2 ET
German Bundesliga
03.04.21	Mainz - Arminia Bielefeld	1:1
05.12.20	Arminia Bielefeld - Mainz	2:1

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