Match Info

GERMANY: BUNDESLIGA - ROUND 31

Date: 5 May 2023, Friday

Location: Mewa Arena (Mainz)

Referee: Jollenbeck M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Cyprus	Nova Sports
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Sports
Greece	Nova Sports
Hungary	Arena 4
Malaysia	Astro
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Eleven Sports
Slovenia	Sport TV
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Ukraine	Setanta Sports
World	Setanta Sports Eurasia


	Mainz		Schalke 04

	1	X	2
	1.7	4	4.5	Watch
	1.71	4	4.5	Watch
	1.65	4.1	4.9
	1.73	4	4.5
	1.75	4.08	4.82
	1.7	3.9	4.6	Watch
	1.68	4.15	4.65	Watch
	1.74	4.2	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.61)	4.05 ↑ (4.02)	4.65 ↓ (5.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mainz
55.9%

Draw
23.5%

Schalke 04
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.9%

23.5%

17.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.6%

23.2%

17.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Schalke 04 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Schalke 04 than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.7%	10%	18.3%

Mainz - Schalke 04 Predictions

Users Predictions: 60 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 43 - 71.7%). Schalke will win (votes: 11 - 18.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 60.3% – 83.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

Mainz has the most likely position - 8 (37.54%), project points - 51, currently - 45, not chance of relegated, a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), not chance of win league.

Schalke has the most likely position - 17 (52.89%), project points - 30, currently - 27, a good chance of relegated (71%), not chance of qualify for ucl.

This event has quality 66, importance 45, match rating 55. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Mainz won 0.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

In this match Mainz is a favorite.

There will not play in Mainz: Burkardt J. (Knee Injury) Widmer S. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Schalke: Balanta E. (Knee Injury) Fahrmann R. (Groin Injury) Heekeren J. (Knee Injury) Jenz M. (Thigh Injury) Kozuki S. (Ankle Injury)

Last 21 head-to-head matches Mainz won 4 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 11 matches and goals 17-28.

Including matches at home between the teams Mainz won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 11-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
30.04.23	Wolfsburg - Mainz	3:0 ✺
22.04.23	Mainz - Bayern Munich	3:1 ✺
15.04.23	Köln - Mainz	1:1 ✺
08.04.23	Mainz - Werder Bremen	2:2 ✺
01.04.23	RB Leipzig - Mainz	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.1 LWTTW
- Schalke 04
German Bundesliga
29.04.23	Schalke 04 - Werder Bremen	2:1 ✺
23.04.23	Freiburg - Schalke 04	4:0 ✺
14.04.23	Schalke 04 - Hertha Berlin	5:2 ✺
09.04.23	Hoffenheim - Schalke 04	2:0 ✺
01.04.23	Schalke 04 - Bayer Leverkusen	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
09.11.22	Schalke 04 - Mainz	1:0
05.03.21	Schalke 04 - Mainz	0:0
07.11.20	Mainz - Schalke 04	2:2
16.02.20	Mainz - Schalke 04	0:0
20.09.19	Schalke 04 - Mainz	2:1
23.02.19	Mainz - Schalke 04	3:0
29.09.18	Schalke 04 - Mainz	1:0

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