Match Info

Premier League - Round 28

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Amex Stadium (Brighton)

Referee: Kavanagh C. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Brighton & Hove Albion		Nottingham Forest

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.5	3.5
	2.1	3.5	3.3
	2.15	3.3	3.6
	2.15	3.45	3.74
	2.1	3.51	3.69	Watch
	2.05	3.25	3.5
	2.14	3.56	3.56	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↓ (2.12)	3.44 ↓ (3.56)	3.56 ↑ (3.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brighton & Hove Albion
45.3%

Draw
27.8%

Nottingham Forest
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

26.8%

28.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

28.4%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brighton & Hove Albion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Nottingham Forest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brighton & Hove Albion than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nottingham Forest than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60.4%	30.2%	9.4%

Brighton & Hove Albion - Nottingham Forest Predictions

Users Predictions: 53 users predict this event. Brighton & Hove will win (votes: 32 - 60.4%). Nottingham will win (votes: 5 - 9.4%). It will Tie (votes: 16 - 30.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Brighton & Hove: 47.2% – 73.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Nottingham (1.70) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Brighton & Hove (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Nottingham (3.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Brighton & Hove (1.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Brighton & Hove Albion will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Brighton & Hove (votes: 9 - 69.2%). Nottingham (votes: 3 - 23.1%). Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Verbruggen B. (G) 27. Wieffer M. 6. van Hecke J. P. 5. Dunk L. (C) 24. Kadioglu F. 13. Hinshelwood J. 20. Milner J. 30. Gross P. 25. Gomez D. 18. Welbeck D. 22. Mitoma K.	26. Sels M. (G) 34. Aina O. 31. Milenkovic N. 5. Murillo 3. Williams N. 6. Sangare I. 8. Anderson E. 21. Hutchinson O. 10. Gibbs-White M. (C) 7. Hudson-Odoi C. 19. Igor Jesus
Substitutes
17. Baleba C. 21. Boscagli O. 29. De Cuyper M. 19. Kostoulas C. 7. March S. 11. Minteh Y. 10. Rutter G. 23. Steele J. (G) 34. Veltman J.	9. Awoniyi T. 29. Bakwa D. 23. Cunha 16. Dominguez N. 18. Gunn A. (G) 24. McAtee J. 14. Ndoye D. 25. Netz L. 22. Yates R.
Coaches
Hurzeler F.	Pereira V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, Gomez D. ⚽, Gross P. (A),
13', 1 - 1, Gibbs-White M. ⚽, Igor Jesus (A),
15', 2 - 1, Welbeck D. ⚽, Hinshelwood J. (A),
30', Anderson E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Wieffer M. 🟨,
56', Williams N. ↓, Netz L. ↑,
56', Hutchinson O. ↓, Cunha ↑,
71', Wieffer M. ↓, Veltman J. ↑,
74', Hudson-Odoi C. ↓, Bakwa D. ↑,
82', Aina O. ↓, Ndoye D. ↑,
83', Igor Jesus ↓, Awoniyi T. ↑,
84', Mitoma K. 🟨,
86', Gomez D. ↓, March S. ↑,
86', Milner J. ↓, Baleba C. ↑,
90+1', Mitoma K. ↓, De Cuyper M. ↑,
90+3', Dunk L. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 14 and 17).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brighton & Hove won 2.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Nottingham may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Brighton & Hove could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Brighton & Hove: Tzimas S. (Knee Injury) Webster A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Nottingham: Boly W. (Knee Injury) John Victor (Knee Injury) Sels M. (Groin Injury) Wood Ch. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Brighton & Hove: Ayari Y. (Shoulder Injury) March S. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Nottingham: Savona N. (Knee Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Brighton & Hove won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 22:28. (average 1.2:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Brighton & Hove won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:9. (average 1.1:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Brighton	6	4	1	1	18:5	13	13
13	Nottingham	5	1	2	2	4:5	-1	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brighton & Hove Albion
English Premier League
21.02.26	Brentford - Brighton & Hove Albion	0:2 ✺
English FA Cup
14.02.26	Liverpool - Brighton & Hove Albion	3:0 ✺
English Premier League
11.02.26	Aston Villa - Brighton & Hove Albion	1:0 ✺
08.02.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Crystal Palace	0:1 ✺
31.01.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Everton	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLLLT
- Nottingham Forest
UEFA Europa League
26.02.26	Nottingham Forest - Fenerbahçe	1:2 ✺
English Premier League
22.02.26	Nottingham Forest - Liverpool	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.02.26	Fenerbahçe - Nottingham Forest	0:3 ✺
English Premier League
11.02.26	Nottingham Forest - Wolverhampton Wanderers	0:0 ✺
06.02.26	Leeds United - Nottingham Forest	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLWTL

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
30.11.25	Nottingham Forest - Brighton & Hove Albion	0:2
English FA Cup
29.03.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Nottingham Forest	0:1 penalties
English Premier League
01.02.25	Nottingham Forest - Brighton & Hove Albion	7:0
22.09.24	Brighton & Hove Albion - Nottingham Forest	2:2
10.03.24	Brighton & Hove Albion - Nottingham Forest	1:0
25.11.23	Nottingham Forest - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:3
26.04.23	Nottingham Forest - Brighton & Hove Albion	3:1

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