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Milan - Atalanta: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide

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Match Info

  • Serie A - Round 7
  • Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday
  • Location: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro) (Milan)
  • Referee: Chiffi D. (Ita)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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    Milan Atalanta
    Milan Atalanta
    1 X 2
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    Williamhill 1.65 4.10 5.15
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    Bovada 1.62 4.40 5.20
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.65 ↓
    (1.88)    		 4.17 ↑
    (3.67)    		 5.01 ↑
    (4.06)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 6.75

    • The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Milan
    57.9%    		Draw
    23%    		Atalanta
    19.1%

    Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
    50.6% 25.9% 23.4%

    Our Initial ML Estimation
    51.6% 25.4% 22.9%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
  • Milan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Milan's performance.
  • Atalanta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milan than the current prediction. (-6.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Milan that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atalanta than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    89.5% 5.3% 5.3%

    Milan - Atalanta Predictions

  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • AH +0.5 - Atalanta (2.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - over (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (1.65) (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
    • DC - Milan (1.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.75 - Milan (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • New Consensus by Tipsters:
    • 1X2 - AC Milan (1.70) (votes: 88%) ⭐ Best Value.
  • Users Predictions: Milan will win (34 of 38 users predict this - 89.47%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 79.71% – 99.23%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Milan will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Milan (votes: 7 - 87.5%). Atalanta (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
    16. FranceMaignan M. (C)
    34. SpainGila M.
      5. BelgiumDe Winter K.
    31. SerbiaPavlovic S.
    21. NigeriaChukwueze S.
    80. USAMusah Y.
    14. CroatiaModric L.
    22. BelgiumMoreira D.
    12. FranceRabiot A.
      9. PortugalRamos G.
    11. USAPulisic C.
    		29. ItalyCarnesecchi M. (G)
    16. ItalyBellanova R.
    31. DenmarkKristensen T.
    23. BosniaKolasinac S.
    47. ItalyBernasconi L.
    10. SerbiaSamardzic L.
    13. BrazilEderson (C)
      8. CroatiaPasalic M.
    17. BelgiumDe Ketelaere C.
    90. MontenegroKrstovic N.
    11. EnglandRowe J.
    Substitutes
    33. ItalyBartesaghi D.
    41. FranceBouyer L. P. (G)
    73. ItalyCamarda F.
    70. ItalyCisse A.
    28. ItalyComotto C.
    13. FranceDiawara S.
      2. EcuadorEstupinan P.
    20. EnglandHutchinson O.
    30. SwitzerlandJashari A.
      8. EnglandLoftus-Cheek R.
    42. ItalyTerracciano F.
    23. EnglandTomori F.
    96. ItalyTorriani L. (G)
    35. BulgariaVladimirov V.
    		70. ItalyGaetano G.
    41. ItalyIdele J.
    40. SloveniaObric R.
    53. ItalyPlaia M.
    45. RepublicPounga D. K.
      9. ItalyScamacca G.
    51. ItalySonzogni M. (G)
    57. ItalySportiello M. (G)
    59. PolandZalewski N.
    77. ItalyZappacosta D.
    Coaches
         PortugalAmorim R.
    		     ItalySarri M.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (2 - 0)
    • 20', Kolasinac S. ↓, Obric R. ↑,
    • 24', 1 - 0, Ramos G. (Penalty Awarded),
    • 41', Rabiot A. 🟨,
    • 43', 2 - 0, Rabiot A. ⚽, Moreira D. (A),
    • 2nd Half (1 - 2)
    • 53', Chukwueze S. ↓, Hutchinson O. ↑,
    • 57', Ramos G. (Penalty Awarded),
    • 58', 3 - 0, Gila M. ⚽, Rabiot A. (A),
    • 59', Pasalic M. ↓, Gaetano G. ↑,
    • 59', Rowe J. ↓, Zalewski N. ↑,
    • 66', 3 - 1, Gaetano G. ⚽, Zalewski N. (A),
    • 69', Ederson 🟨,
    • 75', Bernasconi L. ↓, Zappacosta D. ↑,
    • 75', Samardzic L. ↓, Scamacca G. ↑,
    • 75', Pulisic C. ↓, Jashari A. ↑,
    • 75', Musah Y. ↓, Estupinan P. ↑,
    • 75', Modric L. ↓, Loftus-Cheek R. ↑,
    • 78', Obric R. 🟨,
    • 81', 3 - 2, Krstovic N. ⚽, Bellanova R. (A),
    • 84', Gila M. ↓, Tomori F. ↑,

    Preview

  • An intriguing matchup between an upper-bracket team and a mid-table rival (ranked 6th in the Promotion - Conference League (Qualification: ) and 10th).
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Milan won 0.
  • Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.
  • In this matchup, Milan is considered the favorite to take the win.
  • Confirmed absences for Milan: Gabbia M. (Thigh Injury) Saelemaekers A. (Ankle Injury).
  • Confirmed absences for Atalanta: Elmas E. (Red Card) Hien I. (Muscle Injury) Kessie F. (Calf Injury) Kossounou O. (Thigh Injury) Scalvini G. (Thigh Injury).
  • Doubtful / questionable for Atalanta: Bellanova R. (Thigh Injury) Raspadori G. (Thigh Injury) Sulemana K. (Knee Injury).
  • In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Milan has recorded 5 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 26:32 (averaging 1.3:1.6 goals per game).
  • Specifically in home fixtures for Milan against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, with 11:15 goals (averaging 1.1:1.5 per game).

    • Standings

    PlWDLDiffPts
    4AC Milan743014:7715
    10Atalanta730410:11-19

    Outrights of Italian Serie A for now
    AC Milan: 6.69% Atalanta: 1.09%
    Last Results with these Odds

    Milan - the odds 1.88 are the expected chance of winning is 50.62%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

    Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - AC Milan
    UEFA Europa League
    15.10.26 Red Bull Salzburg - Milan 0:4 ✺
    Italian Serie A
    11.10.26 Sassuolo - Milan 1:1 ✺
    20.09.26 Milan - Lecce 3:0 ✺
    UEFA Europa League
    16.09.26 Milan - Benfica 0:2 ✺
    Italian Serie A
    12.09.26 Lazio - Milan 2:2 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3
    WTWLT
    - Atalanta
    UEFA Europa Conference League
    15.10.26 Atalanta - Paphos 3:1 ✺
    Italian Serie A
    12.10.26 Atalanta - Venezia 3:1 ✺
    20.09.26 Juventus - Atalanta 2:0 ✺
    12.09.26 Atalanta - Cagliari 1:2 ✺
    05.09.26 Roma - Atalanta 2:1 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1
    WWLLL
    Latest Head to Head
    Italian Serie A
    10.05.26 Milan - Atalanta 2:3
    28.10.25 Atalanta - Milan 1:1
    20.04.25 Milan - Atalanta 0:1
    06.12.24 Atalanta - Milan 2:1
    25.02.24 Milan - Atalanta 1:1
    Coppa Italia
    10.01.24 Milan - Atalanta 1:2
    Italian Serie A
    09.12.23 Atalanta - Milan 3:2
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - AC Milan
    Italian Serie A
    25.10.26 Udinese - Milan ✺
    UEFA Europa League
    22.10.26 Bournemouth - Milan ✺
    - Atalanta
    Italian Serie A
    25.10.26 Atalanta - Frosinone ✺
    UEFA Europa Conference League
    22.10.26 Ajax - Atalanta ✺

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