Match Info

Serie B - Round 28

Date: 3 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Stadio Euganeo (Padova)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Padova		Spezia

	1	X	2
	2.5	2.75	3.2	Watch
	2.58	2.82	2.98	Watch
	2.67	2.93	3.2
	2.55	2.99	2.97	Watch
	2.5	2.75	3
	2.48	2.83	3.4	Watch
	2.85	3.15	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↓ (2.79)	2.89 ↓ (3.08)	3.04 ↑ (2.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Padova
36.4%

Draw
32.6%

Spezia
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.1%

30.1%

36.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

29.1%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Padova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Spezia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Spezia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Padova than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Spezia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	66.7%	13.3%

Padova - Spezia Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Padova will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). Spezia will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 64.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Spezia (1.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Padova (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Spezia (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Padova (votes: 1 - 25%). Spezia (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Sorrentino A. (G) 4. Belli F. 5. Perrotta M. 32. Sgarbi F. 72. Faedo C. 17. Capelli A. 8. Fusi P. 7. Varas K. (C) 77. Di Mariano F. 24. Caprari G. 15. Lasagna K.	22. Radunovic B. (G) 4. Ruggero M. 37. Mateju A. (C) 94. Bonfanti G. 17. Sernicola L. 8. Nagy A. 6. Bellemo A. 34. Comotto C. 31. Aurelio G. 99. Vlahovic V. 9. Artistico G.
Substitutes
92. Buonaiuto C. 6. Crisetig L. 23. Di Maggio L. 30. Favale G. 14. Fortin M. (G) 18. Ghiglione P. 86. Giunti G. 1. Mouquet L. (G) 58. Pastina C. 11. Seghetti A. 41. Silva J. 55. Villa L.	25. Bandinelli F. 24. Bertoncini A. 11. Beruatto P. 18. Conte G. 55. Hristov P. 77. Lorenzelli E. 16. Loria L. (G) 12. Mascardi D. (G) 60. Romano A. 19. Shagaxle H. 5. Valoti M. 32. Vignali L.
Coaches
Andreoletti M.	Donadoni R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
14', Aurelio G. 🟨,
24', 0 - 1, Artistico G. ⚽, Bonfanti G. (A),
39', 1 - 1, Sgarbi F. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
50', Ruggero M. 🟨,
58', Caprari G. ↓, Buonaiuto C. ↑,
60', Bellemo A. ↓, Bandinelli F. ↑,
60', Nagy A. ↓, Romano A. ↑,
71', Capelli A. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
71', Faedo C. ↓, Favale G. ↑,
75', Vlahovic V. ↓, Valoti M. ↑,
75', Ruggero M. ↓, Vignali L. ↑,
78', 2 - 1, Lasagna K. ⚽, Fusi P. (A),
81', Mateju A. ↓, Beruatto P. ↑,
82', 2 - 2, Bonfanti G. ⚽, Beruatto P. (A),
85', Di Mariano F. ↓, Di Maggio L. ↑,
85', Lasagna K. ↓, Seghetti A. ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 10 and 17 in the zone Serie B (Play Out: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Padova won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Padova: Bacci J. (Injury) Barreca A. (Inactive) Ghiglione P. (Inactive) Papu Gomez (Inactive)

There will not play in Spezia: Cassata F. (Muscle Injury) Hristov P. (Inactive) Lapadula G. (Inactive) Sarr M. (Ankle Injury) Zurkowski S. (Knee Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Padova won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:11. (average 1.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Padova won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:6. (average 0.8:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Padova	5	2	1	2	5:6	-1	7

Last Results with these Odds

Spezia - the odds 2.51 are the expected chance of winning is 36.82%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Calcio Padova
Italian Serie B
28.02.26	Modena - Padova	1:2 ✺
21.02.26	Padova - Bari	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Sampdoria - Padova	1:0 ✺
10.02.26	Padova - Carrarese	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	Juve Stabia - Padova	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.2 WTLWT
- Spezia Calcio
Italian Serie B
28.02.26	Spezia - Reggiana	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Cesena - Spezia	2:3 ✺
15.02.26	Spezia - Frosinone	0:2 ✺
11.02.26	Bari - Spezia	0:0 ✺
07.02.26	Spezia - Virtus Entella	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
29.10.25	Spezia - Padova	1:1
Club Friendly
27.07.22	Padova - Spezia	1:5
Italian Serie B
09.03.19	Spezia - Padova	0:2
27.10.18	Padova - Spezia	0:0
05.04.14	Spezia - Padova	2:2
01.11.13	Padova - Spezia	1:0
11.05.13	Padova - Spezia	1:1

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