Match Info

Serie B - Round 27

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Alberto Braglia (Modena)

Referee: Calzavara A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Modena		Padova

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.2	7	Watch
	1.55	4	5.5
	1.44	4.25	6.5	Watch
	1.47	4.34	8
	1.42	4.54	7.19	Watch
	1.44	4	7
	1.45	4.29	7.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.52)	4.23 ↑ (3.85)	6.98 ↑ (6.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Modena
64.4%

Draw
22.2%

Padova
13.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.3%

24.1%

14.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.6%

23.6%

14.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Modena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Padova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Modena than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Padova than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	14.3%	14.3%

Modena - Padova Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Modena will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Padova will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Chichizola L. (G) 25. Dellavalle A. 19. Nador S. 20. Nieling B. 2. Beyuku G. 98. Zanimacchia L. 16. Gerli F. (C) 8. Santoro S. 7. Zampano F. 10. Ambrosino G. 99. De Luca M.	14. Fortin M. (G) 4. Belli F. 32. Sgarbi F. 58. Pastina C. 72. Faedo C. 17. Capelli A. 7. Varas K. (C) 44. Harder J. 77. Di Mariano F. 92. Buonaiuto C. 15. Lasagna K.
Substitutes
28. Adorni D. 33. Cauz C. 29. Cotali M. 92. Defrel G. 6. Fabbri T. M. 9. Gliozzi E. 90. Imputato A. 13. Laidani A. (G) 17. Massolin Y. 11. Mendes P. 22. Pezzolato M. (G) 71. Wiafe S.	13. Boi A. 20. Bortolussi M. 24. Caprari G. 6. Crisetig L. 23. Di Maggio L. 30. Favale G. 86. Giunti G. 1. Mouquet L. (G) 11. Seghetti A. 41. Silva J. 22. Sorrentino A. (G) 55. Villa L.
Coaches
Sottil A.	Andreoletti M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
5', Harder J. ↓, Crisetig L. ↑,
8', 0 - 1, Lasagna K. ⚽, Di Mariano F. (A),
14', 0 - 2, Faedo C. ⚽, Buonaiuto C. (A),
28', Beyuku G. ↓, Massolin Y. ↑,
44', Buonaiuto C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', Massolin Y. 🟨,
53', Ambrosino G. ↓, Gliozzi E. ↑,
54', Nieling B. ↓, Cotali M. ↑,
56', 1 - 2, Zanimacchia L. ⚽, Gliozzi E. (A),
60', Buonaiuto C. ↓, Di Maggio L. ↑,
68', Pastina C. ↓, Villa L. ↑,
68', Di Mariano F. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
68', Lasagna K. ↓, Caprari G. ↑,
73', De Luca M. ↓, Imputato A. ↑,
73', Zampano F. ↓, Defrel G. ↑,
74', Fortin M. 🟨,
89', Nador S. 🟨,
90+1', Varas K. 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Modena won 3.

Modena is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Padova has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Modena is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Modena: Pyyhtia N. (Inactive) Sersanti A. (Inactive) Tonoli D. (Red Card)

There will not play in Padova: Bacci J. (Injury) Fusi P. (Yellow Cards) Ghiglione P. (Inactive) Papu Gomez (Inactive) Perrotta M. (Yellow Cards)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Modena won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:9. (average 0.9:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Modena won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:4. (average 1:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Modena	5	3	1	1	8:4	4	10
10	Padova	5	2	1	2	5:6	-1	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Modena
Italian Serie B
22.02.26	Juve Stabia - Modena	1:2 ✺
14.02.26	Modena - Carrarese	2:0 ✺
10.02.26	Venezia - Modena	0:2 ✺
07.02.26	Modena - Sampdoria	1:2 ✺
31.01.26	Empoli - Modena	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WWWLT
- Calcio Padova
Italian Serie B
21.02.26	Padova - Bari	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Sampdoria - Padova	1:0 ✺
10.02.26	Padova - Carrarese	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	Juve Stabia - Padova	3:3 ✺
01.02.26	Padova - Monza	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 TLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
11.01.26	Padova - Modena	2:0
Italian Serie C Group B
18.04.21	Modena - Padova	3:0
23.12.20	Padova - Modena	0:1
19.01.20	Padova - Modena	0:1
09.09.19	Modena - Padova	0:1
29.10.17	Modena - Padova	Padova awarded
19.03.17	Modena - Padova	0:1

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