The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Accrington Stanley 28.2%
Draw 27.6%
Derby County 44.2%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
35.1%
29.2%
35.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
35.2%
29.1%
35.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Accrington Stanley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Accrington Stanley's form might have worsened.
Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Derby County's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Accrington Stanley than the current prediction. (+7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Accrington Stanley, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-8.5%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Derby County, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
22.2%
33.3%
44.4%
Accrington Stanley - Derby County Predictions
Users Predictions:
18 users predict this event. Accrington will win (votes: 4 - 22.2%). Derby will win (votes: 8 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 33.3%). Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 21.4% – 67.4%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Preview
Let's enjoy game between two mid-table teams (ranked 13 and 10).
Accrington has the most likely position - 20 (8.34%), has project points - 53, has currently - 16, has a chance of relegated (22%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (2%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
Derby has the most likely position - 4 (11.06%), has project points - 78, has currently - 17, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (42%), has a chance of promoted (25%), has a very small chance of win league (5%).
This event has small quality22, importance31, small match rating26. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Two teams are playing changeable.
Derby could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
Derby will have a small advantage in this match.
Last 1 head-to-head matches Accrington won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.
Including matches at home between the teams Accrington won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.
Watch
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