Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA LIBERTADORES - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 2

Date: 19 April 2023, Wednesday

Location: Gran Parque Central (Montevideo)

Referee: Herrera D. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Germany	Sport 1+


	Nacional Montevideo		Independiente Medellín

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.6	4.75	Watch
	1.8	3.5	4.4
	1.83	3.55	4.4
	1.82	3.62	4.77
	1.78	3.2	4.4
	1.81	3.52	4.55	Watch
	1.8	3.45	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (1.85)	3.49 ↑ (3.36)	4.51 ↑ (4.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional Montevideo
52.1%

Draw
27%

Independiente Medellín
20.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

27.6%

22.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51%

27.1%

22%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Independiente Medellín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Nacional Montevideo - Independiente Medellín Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Nacional is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Independiente Medellín is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Nacional could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Nacional is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
14.04.23	Nacional Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	4:0 ✺
09.04.23	Danubio - Nacional Montevideo	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
04.04.23	Metropolitanos - Nacional Montevideo	1:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
01.04.23	Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	2:0 ✺
26.03.23	Nacional Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WTWLW
- Independiente Medellín
Colombian Primera A
16.04.23	Atlético Bucaramanga - Independiente Medellín	1:2 ✺
12.04.23	Independiente Medellín - Deportivo Cali	3:0 ✺
08.04.23	Millonarios - Independiente Medellín	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
04.04.23	Independiente Medellín - Internacional RS	1:1 ✺
Colombian Primera A
01.04.23	Independiente Medellín - Deportes Tolima	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWLTT

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