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Current Win Probability
Newcastle United 47.1%
Draw 26.8%
Watford 26.1%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
47.4%
25.8%
26.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
60.9%
20.1%
20.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Newcastle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)
Watford has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (+13.8%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Newcastle United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Watford than the current prediction. (-5.2%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Watford, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
76.5%
10.6%
12.9%
Newcastle United - Watford Predictions
Users Predictions:
132 users predict this event. Newcastle will win (votes: 101 - 76.5%). Watford will win (votes: 17 - 12.9%). It will Tie (votes: 14 - 10.6%). Confidence interval (95%) for Newcastle: 69.3% – 83.7%.The data is statistically significant.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Preview
This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship and 17).
Newcastle has the most likely position - 19 (32.33%), has project points - 29, has currently - 11, has a good chance of relegated (76%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
Watford has the most likely position - 18 (23.31%), has project points - 33, has currently - 13, has a good chance of relegated (52%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
Both teams have a series of defeats in the last matches.
Newcastle could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
Newcastle will have a poor advantage in this game.
Last 12 head-to-head matches Newcastle won 1 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 8-17.
Including matches at home between the teams Newcastle won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3-8.
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