Match Info

Premier League - Round 33

Date: 19 April 2026, Sunday

Location: City Ground (Nottingham)

Referee: Kirk T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Nottingham Forest		Burnley

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.33	6.5
	1.5	4.4	6.7
	1.48	4.65	7.4
	1.46	4.63	7.06	Watch
	1.44	4	6
	1.53	4.53	7.21	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.58)	4.42 ↑ (4.13)	6.81 ↑ (5.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nottingham Forest
64.4%

Draw
21.6%

Burnley
14%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.7%

23.2%

16.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.3%

22.6%

15.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nottingham Forest has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Burnley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nottingham Forest than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burnley than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.4%	15.7%	5.9%

Nottingham Forest - Burnley Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Nottingham (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - Burnley (2.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Nottingham Forest will win (40 of 51 users predict this - 78.43%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.14% – 89.72%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Nottingham (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Burnley (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Sels M. (G) 34. Aina O. 31. Milenkovic N. 5. Murillo 3. Williams N. 6. Sangare I. 8. Anderson E. 29. Bakwa D. 10. Gibbs-White M. (C) 21. Hutchinson O. 11. Wood Ch.	1. Dubravka M. (G) 2. Walker K. (C) 18. Ekdal H. 5. Esteve M. 3. Hartman Q. 20. Ward-Prowse J. 16. Florentino 10. Edwards M. 8. Ugochukwu L. 11. Anthony J. 19. Flemming Z.
Substitutes
9. Awoniyi T. 23. Cunha 16. Dominguez N. 19. Igor Jesus 24. McAtee J. 4. Morato 25. Netz L. 27. Ortega S. (G) 22. Yates R.	27. Broja A. 7. Bruun Larsen J. 9. Foster L. 12. Humphreys B. 29. Laurent J. 17. Tchaouna L. 31. Tresor Ndayishimiye M. 13. Weiss M. (G) 4. Worrall J.
Coaches
Pereira V.	Parker S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
42', Murillo ↓, Cunha ↑,
45+2', 0 - 1, Flemming Z. ⚽, Hartman Q. (A),
2nd Half (4 - 0)
46', Bakwa D. ↓, Igor Jesus ↑,
62', 1 - 1, Gibbs-White M. ⚽,
64', Edwards M. ↓, Foster L. ↑,
69', 2 - 1, Gibbs-White M. ⚽, Hutchinson O. (A),
75', Florentino 🟨,
76', Ugochukwu L. ↓, Bruun Larsen J. ↑,
76', Wood Ch. ↓, Yates R. ↑,
77', 3 - 1, Gibbs-White M. ⚽, Yates R. (A),
80', Walker K. 🟨,
83', Anthony J. ↓, Tchaouna L. ↑,
84', Florentino ↓, Laurent J. ↑,
84', Flemming Z. ↓, Broja A. ↑,
88', Hutchinson O. ↓, Morato ↑,
89', Gibbs-White M. ↓, Dominguez N. ↑,
90+8', 4 - 1, Igor Jesus ⚽, Dominguez N. (A),

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 16 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nottingham won 1.

Nottingham is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Burnley has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Nottingham may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Nottingham is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Nottingham: Boly W. (Knee Injury) Hudson-Odoi C. (Injury) John Victor (Knee Injury) Savona N. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Burnley: Beyer J. (Hamstring Injury) Cullen J. (Knee Injury) Mejbri H. (Hamstring Injury) Roberts C. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Nottingham: Anderson E. (Personal Reasons) Murillo (Injury) Wood Ch. (Injury)

There are questionable in Burnley: Amdouni Z. (Knee Injury)

We predict that Nottingham will win today's game, with odds of 1.49.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Nottingham won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:14. (average 0.9:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Nottingham won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:5. (average 0.9:0.7).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Nottingham: 0.4%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Nottingham	5	1	2	2	4:5	-1	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nottingham Forest
UEFA Europa League
16.04.26	Nottingham Forest - Porto	1:0 ✺
English Premier League
12.04.26	Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
09.04.26	Porto - Nottingham Forest	1:1 ✺
English Premier League
22.03.26	Tottenham Hotspur - Nottingham Forest	0:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.03.26	Midtjylland - Nottingham Forest	1:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 WTTWW
- Burnley FC
English Premier League
11.04.26	Burnley - Brighton & Hove Albion	0:2 ✺
21.03.26	Fulham - Burnley	3:1 ✺
14.03.26	Burnley - Bournemouth	0:0 ✺
03.03.26	Everton - Burnley	2:0 ✺
28.02.26	Burnley - Brentford	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
20.09.25	Burnley - Nottingham Forest	1:1
19.05.24	Burnley - Nottingham Forest	1:2
18.09.23	Nottingham Forest - Burnley	1:1
English League Cup
30.08.23	Nottingham Forest - Burnley	0:1
Club Friendly
29.07.17	Nottingham Forest - Burnley	1:1
English League Championship
23.02.16	Burnley - Nottingham Forest	1:0
20.10.15	Nottingham Forest - Burnley	1:1

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