Match Info

GERMANY: DFB Pokal - 1/16-finals

Date: 30 October 2024, Wednesday

Location: Home Deluxe Arena (Paderborn)

Referee: Burda M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 5
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport 5, Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top event, WOW
Switzerland	Sky Sport Top Event
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5
World	Disney+


	Paderborn		Werder Bremen

	1	X	2
	3	3.75	2.15	Watch
	2.95	3.8	2.2
	3	4	2.2	Watch
	3.05	3.95	2.21
	2.99	3.91	2.18	Watch
	2.8	3.75	2.1
	2.95	3.92	2.18	Watch
	3	4	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.97 ↑ (2.78)	3.89 ↑ (3.78)	2.18 ↓ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paderborn
32%

Draw
24.4%

Werder Bremen
43.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

25.2%

40.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.4%

26.6%

42.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paderborn has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Werder Bremen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paderborn than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Werder Bremen than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	33.3%	50%

Paderborn - Werder Bremen Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Paderborn will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Werder will win (votes: 6 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Werder: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Schubert M. (G) 33. Hoffmeier M. 20. Gotze F. 25. Scheller T. 23. Obermair R. 8. Kinsombi D. 5. Castaneda S. 17. Curda L. 7. Bilbija F. 11. Michel S. 9. Baur M.	1. Zetterer M. (G) 22. Malatini J. 32. Friedl M. 3. Jung A. 8. Weiser M. 10. Bittencourt L. 14. Lynen S. 19. Kohn D. 20. Schmid R. 7. Ducksch M. 17. Grull M.
Substitutes
29. Ansah I. 21. Bauerle A. 1. Boevink P. (G) 42. Bravo-Sanchez A. 46. Engelns L. 43. Ens M. 39. Grimaldi A. 19. Herrmann L. 10. Kostons K.	27. Agu F. 30. Backhaus M. (G) 15. Burke O. 2. Deman O. 21. Hansen-Aaroen I. 33. Nankishi A. 11. Njinmah J. 42. Topp K. 13. Veljkovic M.
Coaches
Kwasniok L.	Werner O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
30', 0 - 1, Ducksch M. ⚽,
44', Grull M. ↓, Njinmah J. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
68', Hoffmeier M. ↓, Bauerle A. ↑,
68', Baur M. ↓, Grimaldi A. ↑,
68', Kinsombi D. ↓, Engelns L. ↑,
78', Kohn D. ↓, Agu F. ↑,
81', Njinmah J. 🟨,
84', Michel S. 🟨,
85', Bilbija F. ↓, Bravo-Sanchez A. ↑,
89', Michel S. ↓, Ansah I. ↑,
89', Jung A. ↓, Veljkovic M. ↑,
89', Njinmah J. ↓, Burke O. ↑,
90', Malatini J. 🟨,
90+4', Bittencourt L. 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Paderborn won 3.

Paderborn is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Werder is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Paderborn won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 16:19 (average 2:2.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Paderborn won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 11:14 (average 2.2:2.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Paderborn 07
German 2 Bundesliga
25.10.24	Köln - Paderborn	1:2 ✺
19.10.24	Kaiserslautern - Paderborn	3:0 ✺
04.10.24	Paderborn - Jahn Regensburg	3:0 ✺
28.09.24	Hamburger SV - Paderborn	2:2 ✺
20.09.24	Paderborn - Hannover	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19 WLWTW
- Werder Bremen
German Bundesliga
26.10.24	Werder Bremen - Bayer Leverkusen	2:2 ✺
20.10.24	Wolfsburg - Werder Bremen	2:4 ✺
05.10.24	Werder Bremen - Freiburg	0:1 ✺
29.09.24	Hoffenheim - Werder Bremen	3:4 ✺
21.09.24	Werder Bremen - Bayern Munich	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.1 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

German DFB Pokal
19.10.22	Paderborn - Werder Bremen	3:2 penalties
German 2 Bundesliga
22.01.22	Paderborn - Werder Bremen	3:4
15.08.21	Werder Bremen - Paderborn	1:4
German Bundesliga
13.06.20	Paderborn - Werder Bremen	1:5
08.12.19	Werder Bremen - Paderborn	0:1
26.04.15	Paderborn - Werder Bremen	2:2
29.11.14	Werder Bremen - Paderborn	4:0

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