The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Port Vale 53.2%
Draw 25.9%
Forest Green Rovers 20.9%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
43.9%
28.4%
27.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
44.6%
28%
27.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Port Vale has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.3%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Port Vale's performance.
Forest Green Rovers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Forest Green Rovers might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Port Vale than the current prediction. (-8.6%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Port Vale that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Forest Green Rovers than the current prediction. (+6.3%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Forest Green Rovers could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
80.6%
6.5%
12.9%
Port Vale - Forest Green Rovers Predictions
Users Predictions:
Port Vale will win
(25 of 31 users predict this - 80.65%). Confidence interval (95%): 66.74% – 94.56%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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Preview
Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 16 and 21 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).
Port Vale has the most likely position - 18 (7.61%), has project points - 54, has currently - 15, has a chance of relegated (19%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (3%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
Forest Green has the most likely position - 24 (20.55%), has project points - 41, has currently - 11, has a good chance of relegated (65%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
This event has small quality13, importance37, small match rating25. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Last 5 head-to-head matches Port Vale won 2.
Two teams are playing changeable.
Port Vale could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
In this match Port Vale is a favorite.
Last 11 head-to-head matches Port Vale won 4 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 15-13.
Including matches at home between the teams Port Vale won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-6.