Match Info

EUROPE: Europa League - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 2 May 2024, Thursday

Location: Stadio Olimpico (Rome)

Referee: Letexier F. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Denmark	TV2 Sport X
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport
Germany	RTL
Italy	Sky Sport, Sky Sport Uno
Malaysia	Astro
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV2
Serbia	Arena Sport
Slovenia	Arena Sport
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Ultra
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Roma		Bayer Leverkusen

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.5	2.1
	3.4	3.3	2.15
	3.45	3.5	2.18	Watch
	3.46	3.5	2.2
	3.5	3.5	2.19
	3.4	3.4	2.1
	3.59	3.59	2.18
	3.55	3.4	2.16
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.47 ↓ (3.6)	3.46 ↓ (3.53)	2.16 ↑ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Roma
27.7%

Draw
27.8%

Bayer Leverkusen
44.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.5%

27%

46.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.5%

27%

46.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Roma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roma than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.1%	15.4%	76.5%

Roma - Bayer Leverkusen Predictions

Users Predictions: 148 users predict this event. Roma will win (votes: 11 - 7.4%). Bayer will win (votes: 114 - 77%). It will Tie (votes: 23 - 15.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayer: 70.2% – 83.8%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Svilar M. (G) 2. Karsdorp R. 23. Mancini G. 6. Smalling C. 37. Spinazzola L. 16. Paredes L. 4. Cristante B. 7. Pellegrini Lo. (C) 92. El Shaarawy S. 90. Lukaku R. 21. Dybala P.	17. Kovar M. (G) 2. Stanisic J. 4. Tah J. (C) 12. Tapsoba E. 30. Frimpong J. 8. Andrich R. 34. Xhaka G. 3. Hincapie P. 10. Wirtz F. 21. Adli A. 20. Grimaldo A.
Substitutes
9. Abraham T. 69. Angelino 22. Aouar H. 17. Azmoun S. 35. Baldanzi T. 63. Boer P. (G) 52. Bove E. 14. Llorente D. 5. Ndicka E. 1. Patricio R. (G) 20. Sanches R. 59. Zalewski N.	13. Arthur 22. Boniface V. 23. Hlozek A. 7. Hofmann J. 1. Hradecky L. (G) 9. Iglesias B. 6. Kossounou O. 36. Lomb N. (G) 25. Palacios E. 32. Puerta G. 14. Schick P. 19. Tella N.
Coaches
De Rossi D.	Alonso X.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', Tah J. 🟨,
28', 0 - 1, Wirtz F. ⚽, Grimaldo A. (A),
30', Pellegrini Lo. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
62', Karsdorp R. ↓, Angelino ↑,
73', 0 - 2, Andrich R. ⚽, Stanisic J. (A),
75', Spinazzola L. 🟨,
75', Xhaka G. 🟨,
76', Andrich R. 🟨,
77', Adli A. ↓, Tella N. ↑,
77', Wirtz F. ↓, Hofmann J. ↑,
78', Cristante B. 🟨,
79', Lukaku R. ↓, Azmoun S. ↑,
79', Paredes L. ↓, Baldanzi T. ↑,
88', Frimpong J. ↓, Palacios E. ↑,
90+1', Dybala P. ↓, Abraham T. ↑,
90+3', Grimaldo A. ↓, Kossounou O. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

Now both teams are in good shape.

Bayer could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Bayer will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Roma: Celik Z. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Bayer: Hlozek A. (Ankle Injury) Iglesias B. (Arm Injury) Tah J. (Knock)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Roma won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Roma won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Roma
Italian Serie A
28.04.24	Napoli - Roma	2:2 ✺
25.04.24	Udinese - Roma	1:2 ✺
22.04.24	Roma - Bologna	1:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
18.04.24	Roma - Milan	2:1 ✺
11.04.24	Milan - Roma	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.3 TWLWW
- Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga
27.04.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Stuttgart	2:2 ✺
21.04.24	Borussia Dortmund - Bayer Leverkusen	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
18.04.24	West Ham United - Bayer Leverkusen	1:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
14.04.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Werder Bremen	5:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
11.04.24	Bayer Leverkusen - West Ham United	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TTTWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
18.05.23	Bayer Leverkusen - Roma	0:0
11.05.23	Roma - Bayer Leverkusen	1:0
UEFA Champions League
04.11.15	Roma - Bayer Leverkusen	3:2
20.10.15	Bayer Leverkusen - Roma	4:4

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