Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 9 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Urbano Caldeira (Santos)

Referee: Herrera A. (Ven)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Santos		Atlético Mineiro

	1	X	2
	2.45	2.90	3.25	Watch
	2.40	2.90	3.20
	2.25	2.95	3.50	Watch
	2.45	3.05	3.52
	2.14	3.08	3.84	Watch
	2.50	2.85	3.30
	2.36	2.92	3.49	Watch
	2.55	3.05	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↑ (2.11)	2.96 ↓ (3.2)	3.42 ↓ (3.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santos
39.9%

Draw
32.2%

Atlético Mineiro
27.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.3%

29.3%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47%

31.1%

24.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Atlético Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santos than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Santos, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (-3%)

Santos - Atlético Mineiro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 23. Rodinei 15. Willian Arao 14. Luan Peres 31. Escobar G. 48. Gustavo Henrique 28. Oliva C. 8. Gabriel Bontempo 32. Rollheiser B. 16. Thaciano 9. Gabriel Barbosa (C)	1. Gabriel Delfim (G) 23. Preciado A. 13. Lyanco 14. Vitor Hugo 6. Lodi R. 21. Franco A. 15. Castano K. 8. Maycon 11. Bernard (C) 9. Cassierra M. 7. Fred
Substitutes
6. Arthur Melo 17. Caballero G. 27. Fernandes D. 18. Igor Vinicius 42. Joao Alencar 26. Joao Ananias 34. Joao Paulo (G) 5. Joao Schmidt 45. Lima 30. Miguelito 57. Nadson 38. Rafael Gonzaga	5. Alexsander 39. Cisse M. 92. Dudu 10. Gustavo Scarpa 17. Igor Gomes 27. Minda A. 2. Natanael 36. Pascini K. 19. Reinier 31. Robert (G) 30. Victor Hugo 40. Vitao
Coaches
Cuca	Dominguez E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
31', 1 - 0, Willian Arao ⚽, Gabriel Barbosa (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', Preciado A. ↓, Minda A. ↑,
59', Bernard ↓, Victor Hugo ↑,
63', Thaciano ↓, Arthur Melo ↑,
68', 2 - 0, Oliva C. ⚽, Gabriel Barbosa (A),
79', Cassierra M. ↓, Reinier ↑,
79', Castano K. ↓, Gustavo Scarpa ↑,
82', Rollheiser B. ↓, Caballero G. ↑,
83', Oliva C. ↓, Joao Schmidt ↑,
87', Rodinei ↓, Igor Vinicius ↑,
87', Gabriel Barbosa ↓, Lima ↑,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santos won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Atlético MG may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Santos could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Santos won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 27:23. (average 1.4:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Santos won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 22:9. (average 2:0.8).

Outrights of Copa Sudamericana for now

Atletico-MG: 34.91%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santos FC
Brazilian Serie A
06.09.26	Internacional RS - Santos	2:3 ✺
Copa do Brasil
02.09.26	Santos - Palmeiras	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
30.08.26	Corinthians - Santos	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
26.08.26	Palmeiras - Santos	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
23.08.26	Santos - Mirassol	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.5 WTWLT
- Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A
05.09.26	São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro	2:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
01.09.26	Atlético Mineiro - Cruzeiro	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
29.08.26	Atlético Mineiro - Vitória Salvador	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
25.08.26	Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
22.08.26	Internacional RS - Atlético Mineiro	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 LWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
11.04.26	Santos - Atlético Mineiro	1:0
14.09.25	Atlético Mineiro - Santos	1:1
16.04.25	Santos - Atlético Mineiro	2:0
27.08.23	Atlético Mineiro - Santos	2:0
23.04.23	Santos - Atlético Mineiro	0:0
05.10.22	Santos - Atlético Mineiro	1:2
11.06.22	Atlético Mineiro - Santos	1:1

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