Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 2

Date: 4 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Urbano Caldeira (Santos)

Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	DAZN
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Israel	Sport 4
Mexico	Fanatiz
Portugal	Canal 11
Spain	Movistar Plus+, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV
Turkey	Spor Smart 2
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Usa	Fanatiz


	Santos		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.25	3.4	Watch
	2.12	3.15	3.45
	2.22	3.29	3.65
	2.21	2.96	3.66	Watch
	2.15	3	3.3
	2.2	3.29	3.52	Watch
	2.14	3.25	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↑ (2.08)	3.17 ↓ (3.35)	3.51 ↑ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santos
43.5%

Draw
29.7%

São Paulo
26.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

44.6%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6%

27.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santos than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	20%	0%

Santos - São Paulo Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Santos (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - São Paulo (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Santos will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Santos (votes: 2 - 66.7%). São Paulo (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 12. Mayke 98. Frias A. 14. Luan Peres 31. Escobar G. 25. Gabriel Menino 5. Joao Schmidt 6. Ze Rafael 22. Barreal A. 9. Gabriel Barbosa 11. Rony	23. Rafael (G) 42. Maik 28. Franco A. 5. Robert Arboleda 35. Sabino 13. Diaz E. 16. Bobadilla D. 94. Danielzinho 29. Pablo Maia 14. Tapia G. 9. Jonathan Calleri
Substitutes
19. Diaz L. 1. Diogenes (G) 49. Gabriel Bontempo 18. Igor Vinicius 13. Joao Basso 30. Miguelito 8. Rincon T. 7. Robinho Jr. 32. Rollheiser B. 29. Tiquinho Soares 3. Vinicius Lira 2. Ze Ivaldo	31. Carlos Coronel (G) 32. Ferraresi N. 11. Ferreira 33. Luan Silva 7. Lucas Moura 45. Lucca Marques 10. Luciano 8. Marcos Antonio 4. Matheus Doria 46. Pedro Ferreira 21. Soares C. 18. Wendell
Coaches
Vojvoda J.	Crespo H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', Frias A. 🟨,
30', Rony 🟨,
37', Franco A. 🟨,
45+5', 1 - 0, Ze Rafael ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Frias A. ↓, Joao Basso ↑,
54', Ze Rafael 🟨,
61', Tapia G. ↓, Luciano ↑,
61', Franco A. ↓, Lucas Moura ↑,
62', Pablo Maia ↓, Marcos Antonio ↑,
66', 1 - 1, Jonathan Calleri ⚽, Lucas Moura (A),
70', Ze Rafael ↓, Miguelito ↑,
71', Joao Schmidt 🟨,
74', Escobar G. 🟨,
80', Barreal A. ↓, Rollheiser B. ↑,
84', Bobadilla D. ↓, Luan Silva ↑,
88', Gabriel Menino ↓, Gabriel Bontempo ↑,
88', Rony ↓, Diaz L. ↑,
90', Maik ↓, Ferraresi N. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santos won 3.

Santos is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

São Paulo has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Santos could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Santos: Neymar (Knee Injury) Thaciano (Inactive) Tiquinho Soares (Inactive) Willian Arao (Inactive)

There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Silva (Knee Injury) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Santos won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 22:30. (average 1.1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Santos won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:7. (average 1.3:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Santos	31	12	9	10	48:46	2	45
9	Sao Paulo	31	12	6	13	36:35	1	42

Last Results with these Odds

São Paulo - the odds 3.35 are the expected chance of winning is 27.7%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santos FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
31.01.26	São Paulo - Santos	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.01.26	Chapecoense - Santos	4:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
25.01.26	Santos - Red Bull Bragantino	0:0 ✺
22.01.26	Santos - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	Guarani - Santos	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLTTT
- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
31.01.26	São Paulo - Santos	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.01.26	São Paulo - Flamengo	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
24.01.26	Palmeiras - São Paulo	3:1 ✺
21.01.26	São Paulo - Portuguesa	2:3 ✺
18.01.26	Corinthians - São Paulo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
31.01.26	São Paulo - Santos	2:0
Brazilian Serie A
21.09.25	Santos - São Paulo	1:0
20.04.25	São Paulo - Santos	2:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
01.02.25	Santos - São Paulo	3:1
14.02.24	São Paulo - Santos	0:1
Brazilian Serie A
12.11.23	Santos - São Paulo	0:0
16.07.23	São Paulo - Santos	4:1

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