Match Info

ENGLAND: CHAMPIONSHIP - ROUND 9

Date: 30 September 2023, Saturday

Location: St. Mary's Stadium (Southampton)

Referee: Brooks J. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	beIN Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 1
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport 1, V Sport
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport
Poland	Viaplay
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Ukraine	Setanta Sports
United-kingdom	Sky Sports


	Southampton		Leeds United

	1	X	2
	3	3.5	2.3	Watch
	2.85	3.6	2.3
	2.86	3.69	2.32	Watch
	2.99	3.75	2.34
	2.8	3.6	2.3
	2.88	3.76	2.27	Watch
	2.9	3.65	2.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.9 ↑ (2.39)	3.65 ↑ (3.4)	2.31 ↓ (2.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Southampton
32.8%

Draw
26%

Leeds United
41.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.6%

27.1%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

27.6%

33.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Southampton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Southampton's form might have worsened.

Leeds United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Leeds United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Southampton than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Southampton, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Leeds United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.8%	15.8%	68.4%

Southampton - Leeds United Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. S`hampton will win (votes: 3 - 15.8%). Leeds will win (votes: 13 - 68.4%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 15.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Leeds: 47.5% – 89.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Bazunu G. (G) 2. Walker-Peters K. 21. Harwood-Bellis T. 35. Bednarek J. 3. Manning R. 4. Downes F. 22. Alcaraz C. 16. Smallbone W. 20. Sulemana K. 9. Armstrong A. (C) 17. Armstrong S.	1. Meslier I. (G) 17. Shackleton J. 21. Struijk P. 6. Cooper L. (C) 25. Byram S. 4. Ampadu E. 8. Kamara G. 20. James D. 7. Piroe J. 10. Summerville C. 24. Rutter G.
Substitutes
10. Adams C. 7. Aribo J. 14. Bree J. 24. Charles S. 23. Edozie S. 26. Fraser R. 6. Holgate M. 18. Mara S. 1. McCarthy A. (G)	12. Anthony J. 2. Ayling L. 9. Bamford P. 28. Darlow K. (G) 30. Gelhardt J. 22. Gray A. 44. Gruev I. 27. Poveda I. 14. Rodon J.
Coaches
Martin R.	Farke D.

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 15 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches S`hampton won 1.

S`hampton is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Leeds is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Leeds could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

Last 9 head-to-head matches S`hampton won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 5-12.

Including matches at home between the teams S`hampton won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Southampton FC
English League Championship
23.09.23	Middlesbrough - Southampton	2:1 ✺
19.09.23	Southampton - Ipswich Town	0:1 ✺
15.09.23	Southampton - Leicester City	1:4 ✺
02.09.23	Sunderland - Southampton	5:0 ✺
26.08.23	Southampton - Queens Park Rangers	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLLW
- Leeds United
English League Championship
23.09.23	Leeds United - Watford	3:0 ✺
20.09.23	Hull City - Leeds United	0:0 ✺
17.09.23	Millwall - Leeds United	0:3 ✺
02.09.23	Leeds United - Sheffield Wednesday	0:0 ✺
English League Cup
29.08.23	Salford City - Leeds United	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WTWTL

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
25.02.23	Leeds United - Southampton	1:0
13.08.22	Southampton - Leeds United	2:2
02.04.22	Leeds United - Southampton	1:1
16.10.21	Southampton - Leeds United	1:0
18.05.21	Southampton - Leeds United	0:2
23.02.21	Leeds United - Southampton	3:0
English League Cup
30.10.12	Leeds United - Southampton	3:0

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