Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 34

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel (Rotterdam)

Referee: Lindhout A. (Ned)


	Sparta Rotterdam		Excelsior

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.9	3.6	Watch
	1.98	3.9	3.45
	1.97	3.96	3.63
	1.97	3.78	3.58	Watch
	1.91	3.6	3.4
	1.97	3.89	3.62	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↓ (1.97)	3.84 ↓ (4.27)	3.55 ↑ (3.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sparta Rotterdam
48.5%

Draw
24.7%

Excelsior
26.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48%

22.1%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.9%

23.4%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sparta Rotterdam has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Excelsior has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sparta Rotterdam than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Excelsior than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	62.5%	12.5%

Sparta Rotterdam - Excelsior Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Sparta Rotterdam will win (votes: 4 - 25%). Excelsior will win (votes: 2 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 38.8% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 3 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Excelsior (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Excelsior (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Drommel J. (G) 2. Bakari S. 3. Young M. 4. Quintero T. 5. Vianello G. 8. Kitolano J. (C) 6. Clement P. 7. Santos A. 10. van Crooij V. 11. Mito S. 9. Lauritsen T.	1. van Gassel S. (G) 3. Meissen R. 4. Widell C. (C) 14. Schouten L. 12. Zagre A. 10. Naujoks N. 20. Hartjes L. 23. Yegoian I. 30. Sanches Fernandes D. 29. van Duinen M. 11. de Regt G.
Substitutes
16. Baas J. 20. Bednarek F. (G) 18. de Guzman J. 14. de Ligt M. 13. Esser J. 30. Kuiper P. (G) 12. Sambo S. 17. Terho C. 21. Toornstra J. 15. van Aanholt P. 19. Zonneveld M.	33. Bergraaf J. 2. Bronkhorst I. 24. Cairo G. 6. Carlen A. 34. El Hamdaoui N. 15. Janssen S. 16. Raatsie C. (G) 8. Tielemans M. 9. Wlodarczyk S.
Coaches
Steijn M.	den Uil R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Vianello G. (Own goal),
40', van Crooij V. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Bakari S. ↓, Zonneveld M. ↑,
46', Clement P. ↓, Baas J. ↑,
50', 0 - 2, Zagre A. ⚽,
53', 1 - 2, Santos A. ⚽,
54', Baas J. 🟨,
62', 1 - 3, Naujoks N. ⚽, de Regt G. (A),
64', Meissen R. ↓, Bronkhorst I. ↑,
71', Mito S. ↓, de Guzman J. ↑,
71', Vianello G. ↓, van Aanholt P. ↑,
71', Quintero T. 🟨,
75', van Duinen M. ↓, Bergraaf J. ↑,
79', Kitolano J. ↓, Toornstra J. ↑,
86', Sanches Fernandes D. ↓, Wlodarczyk S. ↑,
86', Naujoks N. ↓, Carlen A. ↑,
89', van Aanholt P. 🟨,
90+1', 2 - 3, Zonneveld M. ⚽, Lauritsen T. (A),

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 10 and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sparta Rotterdam won 4.

Sparta Rotterdam has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Excelsior has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Sparta Rotterdam may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Sparta Rotterdam will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Sparta Rotterdam: Bakari S. (Inactive) Kleijn M. (Inactive) Martins Indi B. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Excelsior: Carlen A. (Yellow Cards) Henderikx S. (Inactive) Jonathans M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Sparta Rotterdam: van Bergen M. (Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Sparta Rotterdam won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 27:26. (average 1.7:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Sparta Rotterdam won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 1.8:1.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Excelsior	7	3	2	2	15:9	6	11
12	Sparta Rotterdam	8	1	3	4	13:20	-7	6

Last Results with these Odds

Sparta Rotterdam - the odds 1.97 are the expected chance of winning is 47.97%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sparta Rotterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
10.05.26	Twente - Sparta Rotterdam	4:0 ✺
03.05.26	Sparta Rotterdam - Go Ahead Eagles	2:2 ✺
22.04.26	Telstar - Sparta Rotterdam	4:1 ✺
11.04.26	Sparta Rotterdam - PSV Eindhoven	0:2 ✺
05.04.26	NAC Breda - Sparta Rotterdam	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LTLLT
- Excelsior Rotterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
10.05.26	Excelsior - Volendam	1:1 ✺
02.05.26	Groningen - Excelsior	2:3 ✺
26.04.26	Excelsior - Utrecht	5:0 ✺
12.04.26	Zwolle - Excelsior	2:2 ✺
04.04.26	Excelsior - NEC Nijmegen	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 TWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
14.09.25	Excelsior - Sparta Rotterdam	0:1
17.02.24	Sparta Rotterdam - Excelsior	4:2
01.10.23	Excelsior - Sparta Rotterdam	2:1
05.03.23	Excelsior - Sparta Rotterdam	1:4
14.01.23	Sparta Rotterdam - Excelsior	1:0
Club Friendly
31.07.21	Excelsior - Sparta Rotterdam	0:3
Dutch Eredivisie
21.01.18	Sparta Rotterdam - Excelsior	2:3

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