Match Info

Liga Primera - Clausura - Round 6

Date: 12 February 2026, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DAZN App
Ecuador	DAZN App
Mexico	DAZN App
Nicaragua	NicaSports
Paraguay	DAZN App
Peru	DAZN App
Uruguay	DAZN App
Venezuela	DAZN App
World	FIFA+


	Sport Sébaco		Rancho Santana

	1	X	2
	1.53	4	4.5
	1.5	4.15	4.85	Watch
	1.51	4.09	5.12
	1.55	4.34	5.16	Watch
	1.53	3.8	5
	1.56	4.23	5.38
	1.48	4	5.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.71)	4.09 ↑ (3.73)	5.05 ↑ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sport Sébaco
59.7%

Draw
22.3%

Rancho Santana
18%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.3%

24.4%

22.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.8%

24.6%

22.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sport Sébaco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sport Sébaco's performance.

Rancho Santana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sport Sébaco than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sport Sébaco that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rancho Santana than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Sport Sébaco - Rancho Santana Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
29', 0 - 1, ⚽,
41', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
83', 2 - 1, ⚽,
87', 3 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 9 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Primera (Clausura ~ Winners: Quarter~finals)).

Recent form of Sport Sébaco has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Rancho Santana's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Sport Sébaco may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Sport Sébaco is the team to beat.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Sport Sébaco won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 2:1).

Including home match between the teams, Sport Sébaco won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Sport Sebaco	9	3	2	4	9:17	-8	11
10	Rancho Santana	10	1	2	7	8:20	-12	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sport Sébaco
Nicaraguan Liga Primera
08.02.26	Real Madriz - Sport Sébaco	1:0 ✺
05.02.26	Sport Sébaco - Municipal Jalapa	0:0 ✺
31.01.26	Sport Sébaco - Walter Ferretti	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Managua - Sport Sébaco	1:0 ✺
18.01.26	Sport Sébaco - Matagalpa	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LTWLL
- Rancho Santana FC
Nicaraguan Liga Primera
08.02.26	Rancho Santana - Walter Ferretti	2:2 ✺
04.02.26	Real Estelí - Rancho Santana	0:1 ✺
01.02.26	Rancho Santana - Managua	1:1 ✺
24.01.26	Matagalpa - Rancho Santana	0:2 ✺
21.01.26	Rancho Santana - Diriangén	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 49.5 TWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Nicaraguan Liga Primera
25.10.25	Sport Sébaco - Rancho Santana	2:0
17.08.25	Rancho Santana - Sport Sébaco	1:2
28.09.24	Rancho Santana - Sport Sébaco	2:2

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