Match Info

ENGLAND: Championship - Round 26

Date: 4 January 2025, Saturday

Location: Bet365 Stadium (Stoke on Trent)

Referee: Whitestone D. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Hungary	Net4+
United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Stoke City		Plymouth Argyle

	1	X	2
	1.6	4.5	4.75	Watch
	1.63	4.2	4.8
	1.6	4.43	4.92	Watch
	1.65	4.16	4.77	Watch
	1.62	4	5
	1.61	4.33	4.99	Watch
	1.6	4.43	4.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↑ (1.53)	4.29 ↑ (4.25)	4.88 ↓ (5.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stoke City
58.6%

Draw
22%

Plymouth Argyle
19.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.4%

22.2%

16.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.2%

16.3%

22.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stoke City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Plymouth Argyle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stoke City than the current prediction. (-13.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Stoke City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Plymouth Argyle than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.3%	4.3%	4.3%

Stoke City - Plymouth Argyle Predictions

Users Predictions: Stoke City will win (21 of 23 users predict this - 91.3%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Johansson V. (G) 22. Tchamadeu J. 26. Phillips A. 16. Wilmot B. 2. Gooch L. 20. Gallagher S. 12. Seko T. 11. Koumas L. 24. Moran A. 10. Bae J. 9. Cannon T.	21. Hazard C. (G) 6. Szucs K. 5. Pleguezuelo J. 22. Galloway B. 29. Sorinola M. 20. Randell A. (C) 18. Gyabi D. 2. Mumba B. 10. Whittaker M. 14. Obafemi M. 28. Al Hajj R.
Substitutes
13. Bonham J. (G) 6. Burger W. 14. Ennis N. 23. Gibson B. 18. Lawal B. 5. Rose M. 30. Sidibe S. 3. Stevens E. 37. Tezgel E.	7. Cissoko I. 39. Finn T. 27. Forshaw A. 31. Grimshaw D. (G) 4. Houghton J. 35. Issaka F. 3. Ogbeta N. 44. Palsson V. 34. Roberts C.
Coaches
Robins M.	Nancekivell K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Gooch L. 🟨,
41', Hazard C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
49', Gallagher S. ↓, Burger W. ↑,
59', Al Hajj R. 🟨,
65', Obafemi M. ↓, Issaka F. ↑,
70', Gyabi D. ↓, Forshaw A. ↑,
79', Sorinola M. ↓, Ogbeta N. ↑,
79', Al Hajj R. ↓, Houghton J. ↑,

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 19 and 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League One).

Recent matches Stoke is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Plymouth is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Stoke is a favorite.

There will not play in Stoke: Manhoef M. (Knee Injury) Pearson B. (Muscle Injury) Thompson J. (Injury)

There will not play in Plymouth: Bundu M. (Muscle Injury) Edwards J. (Hamstring Injury) Tijani M. (Leg Injury) Wright C. (Red Card)

Last 3 head-to-head matches Stoke won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:2 (average 1.7:0.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Stoke won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stoke City
English League Championship
01.01.25	Burnley - Stoke City	0:0 ✺
29.12.24	Stoke City - Sunderland	1:0 ✺
26.12.24	Stoke City - Leeds United	0:2 ✺
21.12.24	Sheffield Wednesday - Stoke City	2:0 ✺
14.12.24	Stoke City - Cardiff City	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 TWLLT
- Plymouth Argyle
English League Championship
01.01.25	Plymouth Argyle - Bristol City	2:2 ✺
29.12.24	Oxford United - Plymouth Argyle	2:0 ✺
26.12.24	Coventry City - Plymouth Argyle	4:0 ✺
21.12.24	Plymouth Argyle - Middlesbrough	3:3 ✺
14.12.24	Sheffield United - Plymouth Argyle	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
31.08.24	Plymouth Argyle - Stoke City	0:1
20.04.24	Stoke City - Plymouth Argyle	3:0
02.12.23	Plymouth Argyle - Stoke City	2:1

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