Match Info

ENGLAND: Championship - Round 24

Date: 29 December 2024, Sunday

Location: Bet365 Stadium (Stoke on Trent)

Referee: Bell J. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, ESPN 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 3, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	DAZN Canada
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 1
Hungary	Net4+
Iceland	Viaplay
India	FanCode, FanCode
Israel	Sport 3
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	ESPN 2
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 2
Poland	Viaplay
Singapore	mio Sports 1
Slovakia	Voyo
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	beIN Sports MENA English 2
Usa	Paramount+
World	Disney+


	Stoke City		Sunderland

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.4	2.1	Watch
	3.25	3.4	2.15
	3.54	3.35	2.12	Watch
	3.2	3.45	2.27
	3.5	3.38	2.13	Watch
	3.25	3.3	2.2
	3.45	3.54	2.09	Watch
	3.37	3.37	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.37 ↑ (2.84)	3.4 ↓ (3.41)	2.16 ↓ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stoke City
28.1%

Draw
27.9%

Sunderland
44%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.2%

27.7%

39.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.4%

27.8%

38.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stoke City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Stoke City's form might have worsened.

Sunderland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stoke City than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Stoke City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sunderland than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sunderland, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.3%	5.1%	79.7%

Stoke City - Sunderland Predictions

Users Predictions: 59 users predict this event. Stoke will win (votes: 9 - 15.3%). Sunderland will win (votes: 47 - 79.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 5.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sunderland: 69.4% – 90%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Johansson V. (G) 22. Tchamadeu J. 16. Wilmot B. 26. Phillips A. 17. Bocat E. 12. Seko T. 24. Moran A. 10. Bae J. 6. Burger W. 11. Koumas L. 9. Cannon T.	1. Patterson A. (G) 32. Hume T. 26. Mepham C. 13. O'Nien L. 3. Cirkin D. 4. Neil D. (C) 7. Bellingham J. 18. Isidor W. 22. Aouchiche A. 12. Mayenda E. 30. Aleksic M.
Substitutes
13. Bonham J. (G) 14. Ennis N. 20. Gallagher S. 23. Gibson B. 18. Lawal B. 5. Rose M. 30. Sidibe S. 3. Stevens E. 37. Tezgel E.	42. Alese A. 24. Connolly A. 33. Hjelde L. F. 41. Johnson Z. 50. Jones H. 21. Moore S. (G) 10. Roberts P. 15. Rusyn N. 47. Samuel-Ogunsuyi T.
Coaches
Shawcross R.	Le Bris R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Phillips A. 🟨,
21', Gooch L. 🟨,
27', Moran A. 🟨,
43', Johansson V. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', Cirkin D. 🟨,
67', Aleksic M. ↓, Roberts P. ↑,
67', Cirkin D. ↓, Alese A. ↑,
71', Bellingham J. 🟨,
71', Moran A. ↓, Gallagher S. ↑,
77', Mayenda E. ↓, Connolly A. ↑,
85', Gooch L. ↓, Stevens E. ↑,
85', Phillips A. ↓, Rose M. ↑,
90+2', 1 - 0, Cannon T. ⚽,
90+3', Cannon T. 🟨,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 19 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Stoke won 2.

Stoke has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Sunderland is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Sunderland will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Stoke: Pearson B. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Sunderland: Browne A. (Broken Leg) Huggins N. (Knee Injury) Mundle R. (Hamstring Injury) Seelt J. (Knee Injury)

Last 17 head-to-head matches Stoke won 6 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 22:20 (average 1.3:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Stoke won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8:5 (average 1:0.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Stoke City - the odds 2.84 are the expected chance of winning is 33.22%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stoke City
English League Championship
26.12.24	Stoke City - Leeds United	0:2 ✺
21.12.24	Sheffield Wednesday - Stoke City	2:0 ✺
14.12.24	Stoke City - Cardiff City	2:2 ✺
10.12.24	Luton Town - Stoke City	2:1 ✺
07.12.24	Sunderland - Stoke City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLTLL
- Sunderland AFC
English League Championship
26.12.24	Blackburn Rovers - Sunderland	2:2 ✺
21.12.24	Sunderland - Norwich City	2:1 ✺
14.12.24	Swansea City - Sunderland	2:3 ✺
10.12.24	Sunderland - Bristol City	1:1 ✺
07.12.24	Sunderland - Stoke City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TWWTW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
07.12.24	Sunderland - Stoke City	2:1
27.01.24	Sunderland - Stoke City	3:1
21.10.23	Stoke City - Sunderland	2:1
04.03.23	Sunderland - Stoke City	1:5
20.08.22	Stoke City - Sunderland	0:1
English Premier League
14.01.17	Sunderland - Stoke City	1:3
15.10.16	Stoke City - Sunderland	2:0

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