Match Info

Premier League - Round 38

Date: 24 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadium of Light (Sunderland)

Referee: Kavanagh C. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Sunderland		Chelsea

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.75	2
	3.6	3.7	2.02
	3.47	3.87	2.1
	3.41	3.75	2.08	Watch
	3.4	3.5	2
	3.68	3.8	2.08	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.49 ↓ (3.5)	3.73 ↓ (3.78)	2.05 ↑ (2.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sunderland
27.4%

Draw
25.7%

Chelsea
46.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.5%

25.4%

47.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.4%

25.3%

47.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sunderland has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Chelsea has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

The ML Model estimate for Sunderland aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.1%	17.6%	38.2%

Sunderland - Chelsea Predictions

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. Sunderland will win (votes: 14 - 42.4%). Chelsea will win (votes: 13 - 39.4%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sunderland: 25.5% – 59.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Chelsea (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Sunderland (2.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Sunderland (votes: 1 - 50%). Chelsea (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Roefs R. (G) 6. Geertruida L. 20. Mukiele N. 13. O'Nien L. 17. Mandava R. 34. Xhaka G. (C) 27. Sadiki N. 32. Hume T. 28. Le Fee E. 10. Angulo N. 9. Brobbey B.	1. Sanchez R. (G) 29. Fofana W. 6. Colwill L. 21. Hato J. 27. Gusto M. 8. Fernandez E. (C) 25. Caicedo M. 3. Cucurella M. 10. Palmer C. 7. Neto P. 20. Joao Pedro
Substitutes
15. Alderete O. 37. Bi J. T. 3. Cirkin D. 19. Diarra H. 31. Ellborg M. (G) 18. Isidor W. 12. Mayenda E. 11. Rigg C. 25. Traore B.	34. Acheampong J. 17. Andrey Santos 23. Chalobah T. 9. Delap L. 55. Derry J. 14. Essugo D. 49. Garnacho A. 24. James R. 12. Jorgensen F. (G)
Coaches
Le Bris R.	McFarlane C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
25', 1 - 0, Hume T. ⚽, O'Nien L. (A),
42', Angulo N. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
50', 2 - 0, Gusto M. (Own goal),
52', Geertruida L. 🟨,
53', Hato J. ↓, James R. ↑,
54', Fofana W. 🟨,
56', 2 - 1, Palmer C. ⚽, Neto P. (A),
61', Brobbey B. ↓, Isidor W. ↑,
61', Angulo N. ↓, Diarra H. ↑,
62', Fofana W. 🟨,
65', Neto P. ↓, Chalobah T. ↑,
69', Fernandez E. 🟨,
73', Xhaka G. 🟨,
81', Diarra H. 🟨,
85', Caicedo M. ↓, Delap L. ↑,
85', Gusto M. ↓, Acheampong J. ↑,
89', Sadiki N. 🟨,
90+7', Joao Pedro 🟨,
90+8', Le Fee E. ↓, Rigg C. ↑,
90+11', Palmer C. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 10 and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sunderland won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Chelsea may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Chelsea has had a series of home games.

Chelsea will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Sunderland: Ballard D. (Red Card) Moore S. (Wrist Injury) Mundle R. (Hamstring Injury) Talbi C. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Chelsea: Derry J. (Concussion) Estêvão (Hamstring Injury) Gittens J. (Muscle Injury) Lavia R. (Knock) Mudryk M. (Suspended)

There are questionable in Sunderland: Alderete O. (Injury) Traore B. (Knee Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Sunderland won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 17:26. (average 1.4:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Sunderland won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:11. (average 1.5:1.8).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Chelsea: 5.13% Sunderland: 0.15%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	10:12	-2	7
14	Sunderland	5	1	1	3	6:10	-4	4

Last Results with these Odds

Sunderland - the odds 3.5 are the expected chance of winning is 27.46%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sunderland AFC
English Premier League
17.05.26	Everton - Sunderland	1:3 ✺
09.05.26	Sunderland - Manchester United	0:0 ✺
02.05.26	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Sunderland	1:1 ✺
24.04.26	Sunderland - Nottingham Forest	0:5 ✺
19.04.26	Aston Villa - Sunderland	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 WTTLL
- Chelsea
English Premier League
19.05.26	Chelsea - Tottenham Hotspur	2:1 ✺
English FA Cup
16.05.26	Chelsea - Manchester City	0:1 ✺
English Premier League
09.05.26	Liverpool - Chelsea	1:1 ✺
04.05.26	Chelsea - Nottingham Forest	1:3 ✺
English FA Cup
26.04.26	Chelsea - Leeds United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
25.10.25	Chelsea - Sunderland	1:2
21.05.17	Chelsea - Sunderland	5:1
14.12.16	Sunderland - Chelsea	0:1
07.05.16	Sunderland - Chelsea	3:2
19.12.15	Chelsea - Sunderland	3:1
24.05.15	Chelsea - Sunderland	3:1
29.11.14	Sunderland - Chelsea	0:0

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