Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 23

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: BUKO Stadion (Velsen-Zuid)

Referee: Teuben S. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 3, ESPN Extra


	Telstar		Twente

	1	X	2
	5.75	4.33	1.53	Watch
	5.85	4.4	1.52
	5.89	4.7	1.54
	5.65	4.56	1.52	Watch
	5	4.2	1.53
	5.81	4.58	1.54	Watch
	5.75	4.33	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.67 ↑ (4.53)	4.44 ↑ (3.77)	1.53 ↓ (1.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Telstar
16.7%

Draw
21.3%

Twente
62%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.6%

24.8%

54.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.4%

24.5%

55.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Telstar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Twente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Twente's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Telstar than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Twente than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Twente, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	23.5%	76.5%

Telstar - Twente Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Twente will win (votes: 13 - 76.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 23.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Twente: 56.3% – 96.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Twente (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Twente (1.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Twente will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Twente (votes: 10 - 90.9%). Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Koeman R. (G) 14. Ogidi Nwankwo N. 4. Offerhaus G. 6. Bakker D. (C) 3. Alders G. 17. Rossen N. 23. Hatenboer C. 2. Hardeveld J. 39. Ritmeester van de Kamp J. 37. van Duijn S. 19. Thorisson N.	1. Unnerstall L. (G) 28. van Rooij B. 23. Lemkin S. 3. Propper R. (C) 39. Rots M. 6. Zerrouki R. 20. van den Belt T. 11. Rots D. 14. Hlynsson K. 27. Orjasaeter S. 10. Lammers S.
Substitutes
13. Bodak T. (G) 7. Hetli S. 15. Lechkar A. 29. Malone D. 16. Mertens D. 11. Noslin T. 20. Reiziger D. (G) 9. Seedorf J. 30. Tejan K.	38. Bruns M. 21. Karssies S. (G) 4. Kjolo M. 43. Nijstad R. 12. Peixoto G. 7. Pjaca M. 22. Tyton P. (G) 25. Vennegoor of Hesselink L. 32. Verschueren A. 42. Weidmann D.
Coaches
Correia A.	van den Brom J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, van Duijn S. ⚽, Thorisson N. (A),
25', van den Belt T. 🟨,
28', Propper R. ↓, Nijstad R. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
66', Orjasaeter S. ↓, Verschueren A. ↑,
66', Hlynsson K. ↓, Weidmann D. ↑,
66', Thorisson N. ↓, Seedorf J. ↑,
75', Lemkin S. ↓, Pjaca M. ↑,
83', 1 - 1, Pjaca M. ⚽, Lammers S. (A),
85', Hatenboer C. ↓, Mertens D. ↑,
90', Ritmeester van de Kamp J. 🟨,
90', Ritmeester van de Kamp J. ↓, Tejan K. ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Telstar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Twente is considered a favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Telstar won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:7. (average 0.5:1.8).

Including home match between the teams, Telstar won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Twente	8	5	2	1	16:8	8	17
13	Telstar	7	1	2	4	5:12	-7	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Telstar
Dutch Eredivisie
08.02.26	Go Ahead Eagles - Telstar	1:1 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
05.02.26	Telstar - Go Ahead Eagles	2:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
31.01.26	Zwolle - Telstar	4:1 ✺
25.01.26	Telstar - AZ Alkmaar	0:1 ✺
17.01.26	Excelsior - Telstar	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 TWLLT
- FC Twente
Dutch Eredivisie
07.02.26	Twente - Heerenveen	5:0 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
03.02.26	AZ Alkmaar - Twente	2:1 ET ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
30.01.26	NAC Breda - Twente	2:2 ✺
24.01.26	Twente - Excelsior	0:0 ✺
18.01.26	Heracles Almelo - Twente	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
07.11.25	Twente - Telstar	0:0
Dutch KNVB Beker
10.01.23	Twente - Telstar	3:1
Dutch Eerste Divisie
12.04.19	Twente - Telstar	1:0
21.09.18	Telstar - Twente	1:3

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