Match Info

EUROPE: CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 2

Date: 3 October 2023, Tuesday

Location: Olympiastadion (Berlin)

Referee: Jovanovic S. (Srb)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	CMore MAX, CMore Sport
France	beIN Sports
Hungary	Sport 2
Italy	Sky Sport, Sky Sport Uno
Portugal	Eleven Sports
Romania	Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 2
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	CMore Live
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Union Berlin		Braga

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.6	3.8
	1.93	3.6	3.8
	2.05	3.65	3.7	Watch
	1.98	3.6	3.8
	2.04	3.69	3.84
	1.95	3.7	3.6
	1.99	3.66	3.72
	2.02	3.65	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↑ (1.84)	3.64 ↑ (3.6)	3.76 ↓ (4.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Union Berlin
48.2%

Draw
26.3%

Braga
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.3%

26.2%

22.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.9%

28.1%

21.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Union Berlin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Braga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Union Berlin, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Braga than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.3%	20.8%	20.8%

Union Berlin - Braga Predictions

Users Predictions: 48 users predict this event. Union Berlin will win (votes: 28 - 58.3%). Braga will win (votes: 10 - 20.8%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 20.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Union Berlin: 44.4% – 72.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ronnow F. (G) 5. Doekhi D. 23. Bonucci L. 4. Leite D. 18. Juranovic J. 19. Haberer J. 33. Kral A. 29. Tousart L. 6. Gosens R. 27. Becker S. (C) 17. Behrens K.	1. Matheus (G) 17. Mendes J. 5. Saatci S. 4. Niakate S. 26. Borja C. 16. Zalazar R. 21. Horta R. (C) 8. Al Musrati 7. Bruma 23. Banza S. 14. Djalo A.
Substitutes
7. Aaronson B. 3. Jaeckel P. 36. Kemlein A. 20. Laidouni A. 26. Roussillon J. 37. Schwolow A. (G) 39. Stein Y. (G) 28. Trimmel C. 10. Volland K.	88. Castro A. 6. Fonte J. 91. Hornicek L. (G) 10. Horta A. 19. Marin A. 28. Moutinho J. 15. Oliveira P. 22. Pizzi 20. Rony Lopes 9. Ruiz A. 12. Sa T. (G) 18. Vitor Carvalho
Coaches
Fischer U.	Artur Jorge

Preview

Union Berlin has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Braga is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Braga could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Union Berlin is a favorite.

There will not play in Union Berlin: Dehl L. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Khedira R. (Calf Injury) Knoche R. (Leg Injury) Schafer A. (Foot Injury)

There will not play in Braga: Gomez V. (Injury)

Our prediction for today's Braga to win the game is with odds 4.07.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Union Berlin won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-1.

Including matches at home between the teams Union Berlin won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Union Berlin
German Bundesliga
30.09.23	Heidenheim - Union Berlin	1:0 ✺
23.09.23	Union Berlin - Hoffenheim	0:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
20.09.23	Real Madrid - Union Berlin	1:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
16.09.23	Wolfsburg - Union Berlin	2:1 ✺
03.09.23	Union Berlin - RB Leipzig	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- SC Braga
Liga Portugal
28.09.23	Estrela da Amadora - Braga	2:4 ✺
24.09.23	Braga - Boavista	4:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
20.09.23	Braga - Napoli	1:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
16.09.23	Farense - Braga	3:1 ✺
09.09.23	Moreirense - Braga	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
27.10.22	Union Berlin - Braga	1:0
15.09.22	Braga - Union Berlin	1:0

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