Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 10

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Sao Januário (Rio de Janeiro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Usa	Fanatiz


	Vasco da Gama		Botafogo RJ

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.4	4	Watch
	1.98	3.35	3.7	Watch
	2.02	3.44	4.26
	1.97	3.46	3.99	Watch
	1.95	3.2	3.8
	1.95	3.49	4.32	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↓ (2.23)	3.39 ↑ (3.33)	4.01 ↑ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vasco da Gama
48.3%

Draw
28%

Botafogo RJ
23.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

28.6%

28.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.5%

28.7%

28.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vasco da Gama's performance.

Botafogo RJ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Botafogo RJ might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vasco da Gama that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Botafogo RJ could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Vasco da Gama - Botafogo RJ Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Vasco will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vasco: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leo Jardim (G) 2. Rodriguez J. 4. Saldivia A. 30. Robert Renan 66. Cuiabano 88. Cauan Barros 23. Thiago Mendes (C) 3. Tche Tche 10. Rojas J. 11. Andres Gomez 7. David	1. Raul Steffens (G) 2. Vitinho 5. Ferraresi N. 20. Barboza A. 13. Alex Telles (C) 8. Danilo 25. Allan 88. Edenilson 7. Junior Santos 19. Arthur Cabral 11. Matheus Martins
Substitutes
28. Adson 46. Cuesta C. 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 18. Hinestroza M. 25. Hugo Moura 98. JP 43. Lucas Freitas 6. Lucas Piton 9. Matheus Franca 17. Moreira N. 96. Paulo Henrique 77. Spinelli C.	14. Barrera J. 37. Barria K. 15. Bastos 27. Caio Roque 34. Justino G. 42. Kadu Santos 24. Leo Linck (G) 6. Medina C. 10. Montoro A. 28. Newton 23. Rodriguez S. 77. Villalba Jaume L. M.
Coaches
Renato Gaucho	Dias Bellao R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
41', Saldivia A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Alex Telles ↓, Caio Roque ↑,
52', Junior Santos 🟨,
55', Ferraresi N. 🟨,
60', Junior Santos ↓, Villalba Jaume L. M. ↑,
62', 1 - 0, David ⚽, Rodriguez J. (A),
66', 1 - 1, Villalba Jaume L. M. ⚽, Caio Roque (A),
69', Edenilson ↓, Barria K. ↑,
69', Arthur Cabral ↓, Montoro A. ↑,
70', Tche Tche ↓, Hinestroza M. ↑,
70', Rojas J. ↓, Moreira N. ↑,
78', David ↓, Spinelli C. ↑,
79', 1 - 2, Matheus Martins ⚽, Montoro A. (A),
88', Allan ↓, Newton ↑,
90', Edenilson 🟨,
90+2', Raul Steffens 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 2.

Vasco is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Botafogo has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Vasco may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Vasco could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Vasco: Cuiabano (Injury) Jair (Knee Injury) Mateus Carvalho (Knee Injury) Spinelli C. (Inactive)

There will not play in Botafogo: Correa J. (Inactive) Kaio Pantaleao (Knee Injury) Marcal (Inactive) Ramos C. (Knock)

There are questionable in Vasco: Lucas Piton (Injury) Rodriguez J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Botafogo: Alex Telles (Injury) Edenilson (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 20:24. (average 1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Vasco won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:11. (average 1:0.8).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Botafogo RJ: 0.17% Vasco: 0.09%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Botafogo RJ	29	9	8	12	42:47	-5	35
14	Vasco	28	9	7	12	36:42	-6	34

Last Results with these Odds

Vasco da Gama - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 42.64%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Serie A
01.04.26	Coritiba - Vasco da Gama	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Vasco da Gama - Grêmio	2:1 ✺
18.03.26	Vasco da Gama - Fluminense	3:2 ✺
15.03.26	Cruzeiro - Vasco da Gama	3:3 ✺
12.03.26	Vasco da Gama - Palmeiras	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18 TWWTW
- Botafogo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
01.04.26	Botafogo RJ - Mirassol	3:2 ✺
29.03.26	Athletico Paranaense - Botafogo RJ	4:1 ✺
21.03.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Botafogo RJ	1:2 ✺
18.03.26	Palmeiras - Botafogo RJ	2:1 ✺
14.03.26	Botafogo RJ - Flamengo	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
08.02.26	Vasco da Gama - Botafogo RJ	2:0
Brazilian Serie A
05.11.25	Botafogo RJ - Vasco da Gama	3:0
Copa do Brasil
11.09.25	Botafogo RJ - Vasco da Gama	1:2 penalties
27.08.25	Vasco da Gama - Botafogo RJ	1:1
Brazilian Serie A
12.07.25	Vasco da Gama - Botafogo RJ	0:2
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
23.02.25	Vasco da Gama - Botafogo RJ	1:0
Brazilian Serie A
05.11.24	Botafogo RJ - Vasco da Gama	3:0

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