Match Info

Date: 6 March 2022, Sunday


	Watford		Arsenal

	1	X	2
	7	4.2	1.5
	6.5	4.2	1.51
	7	4.3	1.53
	6.6	4.3	1.48
	7.39	4.39	1.51
	7.5	4	1.47
	7.3	4.45	1.51	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.04 ↑ (5.73)	4.26 ↑ (3.98)	1.5 ↓ (1.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Watford
13.6%

Draw
22.5%

Arsenal
63.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.6%

23.9%

59.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.8%

19.9%

71.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Watford has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Arsenal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Watford than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arsenal could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.4%	4.1%	83.5%

Watford - Arsenal Predictions

Users Predictions: Arsenal will win (101 of 121 users predict this - 83.47%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.85% – 90.09%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa Conference League (Qualification)).

Watford has the most likely position - 19 (43.62%), has project points - 30, has currently - 19, has a good chance of relegated (81%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has not chance of win league.

Arsenal has the most likely position - 4 (52.13%), has project points - 68, has currently - 45, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a good chance of qualify for ucl (61%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 69, importance 59, match rating 64. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Watford won 0.

Watford is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Arsenal is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Arsenal could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Arsenal have a series of home games.

In this match Arsenal is absolute favorite.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Watford won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 11-25.

Including matches at home between the teams Watford won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 5-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Watford FC
English Premier League
26.02.22	Manchester United - Watford	0:0 ✺
23.02.22	Watford - Crystal Palace	1:4 ✺
19.02.22	Aston Villa - Watford	0:1 ✺
12.02.22	Watford - Brighton & Hove Albion	0:2 ✺
08.02.22	West Ham United - Watford	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.1 TLWLL
- Arsenal FC
English Premier League
24.02.22	Arsenal - Wolverhampton Wanderers	2:1 ✺
19.02.22	Arsenal - Brentford	2:1 ✺
10.02.22	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Arsenal	0:1 ✺
23.01.22	Arsenal - Burnley	0:0 ✺
English League Cup
20.01.22	Arsenal - Liverpool	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
07.11.21	Arsenal - Watford	1:0
26.07.20	Arsenal - Watford	3:2
15.09.19	Watford - Arsenal	2:2
15.04.19	Watford - Arsenal	0:1
29.09.18	Arsenal - Watford	2:0
11.03.18	Arsenal - Watford	3:0
14.10.17	Watford - Arsenal	2:1

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