Match Info

Eerste Divisie - Round 24

Date: 23 January 2026, Friday

Location: Koning Willem II Stadion (Tilburg)

Referee: de Beuckelaer A. (Bel)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 4


	Willem II		VVV-Venlo

	1	X	2
	1.81	3.9	3.7	Watch
	1.8	3.8	3.6
	1.85	3.7	3.7	Watch
	1.87	3.94	3.83
	1.84	3.94	3.77	Watch
	1.85	3.6	3.6
	1.85	3.89	3.69	Watch
	1.86	3.75	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↑ (1.75)	3.82 ↑ (3.75)	3.69 ↓ (3.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Willem II
50.5%

Draw
24.3%

VVV-Venlo
25.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.9%

24.2%

23.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.2%

24.8%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Willem II has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

VVV-Venlo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Willem II than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for VVV-Venlo than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.5%	18.2%	27.3%

Willem II - VVV Venlo Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Willem II will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Venlo will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Willem II: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Venlo (2.22) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Venlo (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. de Leeuw K. (G) 15. Et Taibi A. 30. Behounek R. 4. Hoogma J. (C) 24. Tjoe a On N. 7. Doodeman N. 6. Besselink G. 18. Zarrouk A. 20. El Allouchi M. 28. Verheydt T. 9. Haen D.	13. Schoonderwaldt Y. (G) 31. Davis M. 33. Blancquart G. (C) 16. Heise P. 5. de Blok L. 20. Eijgenraam J. 25. Foor N. 27. Kromah L. 8. van Oorschot D. 7. Wehmeyer L. 9. Zandbergen D.
Substitutes
23. Abildgaard L. 47. Baartmans S. 17. Bamba S. 2. Ciranni A. 8. Culum A. 41. Kotte T. (G) 14. Mathijsen J. 19. van Aalst U. 43. van der Bas V. (G) 22. van Loon P. 45. van Maarschalkerwaard P.	11. Ait Mouhou N. 1. Doornbusch T. (G) 15. Joosten T. 6. Kluskens J. 26. Matoug N. 17. Saddiki D. 23. Sbai Y. 22. Taylan Z. (G) 18. van Zijl B. 3. Verheij L. 42. Vullers R.
Coaches
Stegeman J.	Uneken P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', Davis M. ↓, Sbai Y. ↑,
35', 1 - 0, Doodeman N. ⚽, Et Taibi A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
63', Verheydt T. ↓, Baartmans S. ↑,
69', Wehmeyer L. ↓, Matoug N. ↑,
69', Kromah L. ↓, Ait Mouhou N. ↑,
71', Haen D. 🟨,
75', Et Taibi A. ↓, Ciranni A. ↑,
75', El Allouchi M. ↓, Bamba S. ↑,
77', van Oorschot D. ↓, Kluskens J. ↑,
77', Sbai Y. ↓, van Zijl B. ↑,
79', 1 - 1, Zandbergen D. ⚽, van Zijl B. (A),
84', Doodeman N. ↓, Culum A. ↑,
84', Besselink G. ↓, van Aalst U. ↑,
88', 2 - 1, Behounek R. ⚽, Tjoe a On N. (A),
89', Blancquart G. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Promotion: ) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Willem II won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Willem II is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Willem II: Lachkar A. (Groin Injury) Mathieu D. (Knee Injury) van Berkel N. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Venlo: Timber D. (Knee Injury) Triep J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Willem II: Schuurman J. (Knock)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Willem II won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 28:24. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Willem II won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:7. (average 1.5:0.7).

Outrights of Dutch Eerste Divisie for now

Venlo: 7.38%

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Venlo	10	7	0	3	26:14	12	21

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Willem II
Dutch Eerste Divisie
18.01.26	FC Eindhoven - Willem II	0:2 ✺
21.12.25	Helmond Sport - Willem II	2:2 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
18.12.25	Willem II - Sparta Rotterdam	1:5 ✺
Dutch Eerste Divisie
12.12.25	Willem II - Cambuur	0:1 ✺
06.12.25	Willem II - Dordrecht	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WTLLW
- VVV-Venlo
Dutch Eerste Divisie
16.01.26	VVV-Venlo - Jong AZ Alkmaar	1:3 ✺
19.12.25	VVV-Venlo - Dordrecht	3:1 ✺
12.12.25	Den Bosch - VVV-Venlo	0:1 ✺
05.12.25	Waalwijk - VVV-Venlo	1:2 ✺
28.11.25	VVV-Venlo - ADO Den Haag	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
21.11.25	VVV-Venlo - Willem II	0:2
23.03.24	Willem II - VVV-Venlo	2:0
17.11.23	VVV-Venlo - Willem II	1:3
27.05.23	Willem II - VVV-Venlo	2:2 ET
23.05.23	VVV-Venlo - Willem II	3:2
09.04.23	Willem II - VVV-Venlo	2:1
11.11.22	VVV-Venlo - Willem II	0:0

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